Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (56163)	11/8/2002 5:17:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi LindyBill; I should critique the logic that concludes that there will be war with Iraq, as outlined by Patrick Tyler for the NYT. The argument requires two assumptions: (1) The US is ready for a war. (2) Bush will start a war if Saddam fails to disarm. (3) Saddam will not disarm, either by not allowing inspectors or by hiding WMDs. (4) If Saddam does allow inspectors, the inspectors will find evidence of lack of disarming. Therefore, war will begin soon. I've already critiqued item numbers (1) extensively (the issue of military sufficiency and preparedness). The level of mobilized US reserves is now lower than it has been since DefenseLink.mil started publishing the figures back in November of last year. I've been publishing these figures on FADG in order to illustrate the fact that the US is not preparing for war. I've been correct in this, in contrast to those who thought otherwise. For example: BCherry168, October 15, 2002 ... You will see the Reserve and National Guard units being called up in about 3 weeks. ... #reply-18118556 I've similarly extensively critiqued (2), that there will be a war if Iraq refuses to disarm (the diplomatic issues). My critique is that there are not sufficient local allies to support a US invasion. This has not changed, and in fact the Turkish elections just eliminated them from being a springboard. The above two critiques were what supported my prediction (dating to a year ago) that there would be no war with Iraq. Since then, Saddam has shown a willingness to disarm and this suggests that I should, in addition, critique (3) and (4), as well as explain why it is that Saddam is willing to disarm (even though the US cannot attack him if he doesn't). Rather than hang that argument on to this post, I'll put it in a separate one linked to this one. -- Carl