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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (203534)	11/8/2002 1:51:35 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

it is my opinion that Greenie will not be able to re-flate the economy. he has obviously failed to re-flate on the business side. and now the consumer side is starting to crack; credit is being withdrawn from the marginal borrower. Nextcard is gone. Metris is basically gone. Providian is really no longer in the sub-prime business. Conseco is gone. Americredit is pulling back. Capital One is pulling back. Sears got downgraded today. The only place where sub-prime credit is still being extended is real estate, but look at the Alt-A and sub-prime default numbers; they are simply off the charts so that trend ain't gonna last much longer. This is just the first step in the food chain, just as the marginal internet start-up being denied new capital was the beginning of the corporate bust. With most of our 'money' not really money at all but an 'asset' backed by specious liabilities (credit card receivables, car loans, home loans) i expect that the credit contraction has only just begun. As far as commodities, i think they are going to keep going down in price. Please no flames from the inflationists in the crowd; we've gone over this enough before. IMO falling final demand will conspire with excess productive capacity to keep pushing prices (on a long-term secular basis) down. That continues to be my opinion, and i am sticking to it. Frankly i think the only thing you want to own in such a scenario is short-term, liquid liabilities of the US government, which is why i am mostly out of my ten-years now. i am agnostic on gold. Cheers

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (203534)	11/8/2002 5:50:05 PM
From: stomper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Hi Joan. When I'm driving around town I listen to all AM radio, and METRIS is trying to sell their 10.5% subordinated debt direct to the consumer through radio ads. LOL. They run them every 10 minutes on 1500 and at the end they do a ultra-fast disclaimer..."Metris debt may be risky and not appropiate...you could lose some or all of your principal...Metris debt risk is directly related to the performance of Metris, blah blah blah. " Too funny. -dave