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To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 1:10:44 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

3...possibly/probably 4 ( with major lows 1st q next year)

To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 1:11:50 PM
From: Eva	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

.......and from these choices which is the favored one please

To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 1:14:58 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

You coyly did not mention your preferred. Did you bring me back anything from London?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 1:19:16 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 209892

My choices in order 3) This is the terminal move of a flat begun out of the July lows and we soon turn down to new lows. 4) This is 'a' of a larger correction. We'll go sideways/up for months yet before threatening the lows.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 1:42:21 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

Welcome back Allan Put me down for choice #3. Given the current fundamentals it also appears the most likely, IMO.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 2:00:37 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 209892

I favor 4, but might consider 2, with the B looking like 1938-1939. sharelynx.net So when do you reveal your preferred?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 2:24:28 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

#1 and then #2

To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 2:48:34 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

1) It is the bottom. The bull market is still alive and the correction is over -- we are going to new highs in SPX. I give this <5% chance. The bull high set in 2000 was a mania top with astronomical valuations that will stand for >10 years. 2) First leg of the bear is done -- the 'A' of a larger A-B-C move. The low will endure for a year at least. This has a 10-30% chance, mostly based on the depth and duration of decline in tech, and the possibility that the October double bottom was the four-year cycle low to match 1998. This would require more insider buying, IMO, but perhaps pension fund rebalancing and all the built-up short seller profits permit this. It has valuation, money flows, the dollar, sentiment, and fundamentals all stacked against it, however. I also suspect the commercials would be long for this event. 3) This is the terminal move of a flat begun out of the July lows and we soon turn down to new lows. I remain suspicious that there is a flat, except in select issues. For the majority of stocks, October was a fresh impulsive low. 4) This is 'a' of a larger correction. We'll go sideways/up for months yet before threatening the lows. I favor this scenario, 70% probability. It mixes in seasonality, pension fund rebalancing, cycle lows, and still puts us to fresh lows in a few months. I would say many weeks, not many months. Should run around 15 weeks total, terminating right around the beginning of 2003. The fresh down will be wave "C" of a double-three off the bull market top in most indicies. It means we're correcting just the down since March. We have a single completed corrective structure now, but it is unlikely that 30 weeks of down would be corrected in just four weeks of up. I think it takes more time, if not price as well. Therefore, I put us in a "b" down here to work off the excesses we've built on this rally, but there looms a multi-week brother to the last several weeks. One should also note that almost all scenarios point to more down before more up, to at least a 38% retrace of the recent move up. BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (59016)	11/8/2002 3:07:07 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 209892

One more thing - there should be substantial decoupling of the different sectors on the next move. I see lots of four-week A-waves in tech begging for a brother up after a little corrective down. HOWEVER - many non-tech, especially Dow and banking issues already have beautiful, complete-looking corrective structures, ready to launch fresh down. Prepare for rotation out of non-tech (AXP BAC C JNJ MMM WMT) back into tech (AMAT MXIM LRCX NVLS - well, mostly semis). I will be covering in tech and redeploying short in non-tech for the next few weeks. BC