To: T-Lo Greens who wrote (90961 ) 11/21/2002 8:45:30 AM From: long-gone Respond to of 116837 <<lack of physical demand is the #1 reason. Also as recovery methods improve the scarcity issue will gradually be removed as well. >> Looks like at least half wrong! World Gold Council Advises Improving Trend in Gold Demand; Fall in Tonnage Slows; The Dollar Value of Demand Grows Source: Business Wire Publication date: 2002-11-21 Business Editors NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 21, 2002-- U.S. Gold Jewellery Demand Making Gains Despite Declining Sales In Luxury Goods The World Gold Council said today in its quarterly review, Gold Demand Trends, that global gold demand in the third quarter remained below year-earlier levels in tonnage terms but the rate of decline was halved to 7% from the 14% experienced in the first half-year. In dollar terms demand was 6% higher than a year earlier and the fall in the dollar value of gold offtake which started in 1997 appears to have halted. Despite prolonged weakness in the U.S. economy, fears of terrorist attacks and the prospect of war with Iraq, gold jewellery demand in the U.S. managed to gain 3% in Q3 compared to Q3 last year, as gold continues to perform despite a significant sales decline in the overall luxury goods sector. The report noted that gold jewellery's role as an affordable luxury has served it well in a weak retail environment. Items that convey "connection" such as religious symbols, charms and lockets have continued to sell. Elsewhere in the world, weak economies, the rise in the dollar price of gold and price volatility continued to deter purchasers of jewellery. However, during the quarter buyers started to become accustomed to prices in excess of $300/oz and, later in the quarter, to those in excess of $310/oz. The year-on-year fall in jewellery demand in tonnage terms, therefore, slowed sharply to 4% compared to 17% during the first half-year. In dollar terms, Q3 demand was 10% higher than a year earlier. Industrial demand in Q3 was 7% higher in tonnage terms (23% in dollar terms) than a year earlier. The recovery in a number of East Asian countries first noted in Q2 gathered pace and outweighed the impact of still slack demand in Europe. Dental demand was 1% higher in tonnage terms (15% in dollar terms) than a year earlier. Net retail investment tonnage was 32% lower than Q3 2001 but this was due to the exceptional level of gold buying in the immediate aftermath of September 11 last year. Offtake in this category in Q3 2002 was higher than in other recent quarters, once allowance is made for the distorting effect of special factors, although the higher price has meant that profit taking limited demand. Interest in gold as an investment for individuals continues to build - albeit slowly - in the light of political and economic concerns; market reports and other evidence suggest that this is true also for institutional investment, although this is not covered in the Gold Demand Trends figures. The pattern of a slowing fall in consumer demand (jewellery plus retail investment) applied to a number of countries, most notably India where the 8% year-on-year fall recorded in Q3 compared to a 44% decline in the first half year. Most Middle East countries also followed this model, as did Brazil, Thailand and Taiwan. Demand was buoyant in Pakistan (up 32% year-on-year) and in Vietnam (up 5%) while jewellery demand in the US rose 3% despite a significant fall in the luxury goods sector overall. There was, however, a pause in the recovery in Turkey after a strong first half year and demand remained weak in Europe and Hong Kong and hesitant in countries such as China, Korea and Indonesia. "Demand remained weak in the third quarter," said James Burton, Chief Executive Officer of the World Gold Council. "The WGC will continue its role of supporting the global market for gold in all its traditional forms. " World gold demand (excluding institutional investment) was 780 tonnes in the third quarter, 7% lower than in Q3 2001. This brought demand in the first three quarters to 2,332 tonnes, 12% lower than in the corresponding period of 2001. The immediate cause of the fall in gold demand in tonnage terms during the first nine months of 2002 was the rising price and the weak world economy, with an additional factor being the reduction in mining company hedge books during the period. All contributed to the reduced levels of gold supply and demand. In Q3, jewellery purchases, at 611 tonnes, accounted for the major part of overall demand with the balance made up of 83 tonnes of retail investment, 69 tonnes for industrial purposes and 17 tonnes for dental use. The total value of gold demand in Q3 was $7.9bn This was 6% higher than a year earlier despite the 7% fall in quantity, reflecting the increase in the dollar price which averaged $314/oz in the third quarter compared to $274 for the third quarter of 2001. Gold demand summary % change over year earlier Year to 2000 2001 Q3'01 Q4'01 Q1'02 Q2'02 Q3'02 Q3 date Tonnes Total consumer 3335.5 3403.4 761.6 1027.2 721.8 659.0 694.0 -8.9 -12.7 Jewellery 3186.6 3063.0 638.5 938.6 631.9 601.3 610.8 -4.3 -13.2 Retail investment 148.9 340.4 123.1 88.6 89.9 57.7 83.2 -32.4 -8.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Industrial 388.4 289.7 64.2 74.3 65.3 71.9 68.6 6.9 -4.4 Dental 68.8 69.2 17.0 17.6 17.3 17.2 17.2 0.7 0.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 3792.7 3762.3 842.8 1119.1 804.4 748.1 779.8 -7.5 -11.8 Total ($bn) 34.0 32.8 7.4 10.0 7.5 7.5 7.9 6.1 0.4 Source: GFMS NOTES TO EDITORS The demand statistics in Gold Demand Trends are compiled by GFMS (Gold Fields Mineral Services) Ltd for the World Gold Council (WGC). The commentary is supplied by the WGC. Gold Demand Trends No 41 is available from the day of publication on the Council's website (www.gold.org). Hard copies of the GDT document can be obtained from the World Gold Council, 444 Madison Ave., New York, NY 10022 (Tel: 212-317-3800 Fax: (212) 688-0410. A pdf file can be downloaded from the website or obtained by e-mail from anne.papadopoulos@gold.org (C) Copyright 2002. The World Gold Council ("WGC") and GFMS (Gold Fields Mineral Services) Ltd. All rights reserved. The use of the statistics contained in this press release is permitted for review and commentary (including media commentary) with the clear acknowledgement of GFMS as their source. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of all information used in this document, neither GFMS nor the WGC can guarantee such accuracy and neither GFMS nor the WGC accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly, or indirectly, from the use of this document. Publication date: 2002-11-21cnniw.yellowbrix.com ;