Hello Maurice, Do times get better than they are now?
The game for 2002 is coming to an end. Argentineans won, but only if denominated in their own currency, and only if they had held Aztec gold. Q-chanters won, but only relative to Enron-ians, and not even relative to ZIM holders.
Everybody lost against scurrying gold bugs and squiggling platinum worms, except perhaps dozing London real estate owners (EDIT: this sets up the show for 2003).
I feel secure in the knowledge that a world of still-entranced maurices, oops, I meant to say zombies, all worshipping their respective omnipotent but not all-knowing (not to mention never dusty archive browsing) maestros are somehow, inexplicably, making me wealthier in so many exotic ways: imploded Argentina, still interest paying Australia, busying China, relaxed EU, fearful Hong Kong, dazed Japan, WAT-ed Pakistan, last-resort-standing Thailand, oiled Russia, gilded South Africa, anti-social Switzerland, lost Zimbabwe, and soon, the grand-slam prize, debt-ed USA.
And by so much varied means: grinding equity declines, euphoric stock rallies, range-bound random walks, currency perturbations, negative interest loans, positive carry fixed deposits, distressed bonds, faithful debts, ladder-ed sovereigns, straddled options, naked puts, covered calls, empty warehouses, leased shops, idle land, rented offices, and later, the slam-dunk unified field theory trophy, Aztec gold.
My score is precisely 7.43% year-to-time net asset gain, the interim high for 2002, and given the momentum of markets and nature of psychology, the equation of fear and balance of greed, I believe 8% is achievable by December 31st, 2002.
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30% in 1999 is just so so, but 8% in 2002 is simply so excellent, maybe even just short of outstanding. The world is such a relative, give-and-take kind of a place, and recently more take than give.
I begin to feel uncomfortable. Matters are spinning too right, the trades seemingly too obvious, the gains too natural, the rewards too rich, and the path of least resistance too suspiciously so.
But, wait, I look behind me and do not see any maurice coming my way yet. Thus assured, I stay the lonely course;0)
We must figure out what to do for 2003 within the next few weeks. While I do not believe that markets, as does the weather, recognize calendar demarcation, I do believe in regularly reviewing actions, do-nothings, current results and latent risks.
Between Pezz, you and myself, we cover a good spectrum of time horizon.
Pezz trades on the expectation of 20% gains in days or weeks.
You wait on the hope of 2,000% gains in a lifetime.
I wander in and out of positions on wish for 100% gains in 5 years.
We will most likely not receive what we expect, nor get what we deserve. In the mean time we must take what we can get, from others, most likely;0)
BTW, moving from subject of negative yields and positive gains, on the matter of zero-sums games, the world economy grows at 2-3% per annum, therefore, in my view, when we gain more than that, we took something from somebody somewhere, most likely against their expectation, and definitely against their wish.
Chugs, Jay |
