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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gcrispin who wrote (15763)	11/9/2002 11:05:46 PM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78744

Give CD's free cash flow a very hard look before you buy into that number. I think if you give the 10-K a hard look you'll find either that the free cash flow they say they have is either indecipherable or misleading, perhaps both. This is a stock where I look at the 10-K every year and there's always something funny about the accounting. Maybe this is the time I'll be wrong, but no regrets so far.

To: gcrispin who wrote (15763)	11/10/2002 5:11:22 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78744

I own CD and strongly believe you'll make money in it from here, though I can see Jim Clark's position...if you have to really understand how all the moving parts fit together, you don't want CD. It's not as big a 'black box' as IBM or GE, but the various transactions and a finance element make it tough to model. After Henry got screwed on CUC, he's really tightened up DD, to the point he claims they have done the most thorough reveiw of anybody out there on acquistions since CUC. The $1B hit he personally took an that disaster makes me think he's walking that talk. I like the mix of differing cyclicality of the various businesses...that produces a more stable cash flow. It's important to emphasise on the hotel side that the hotels they franchise are more aimed at 'road warriers' than air travelers, thus less likely to suffer as a result of weakness in air travel. Also, they own the brands and get franchise cash flows that are far more stable than owning the buildings...even somewhat counter cyclical since they get more sign-ups when times are tough.