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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Therapy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Graphs who wrote (3684)	11/10/2002 3:30:46 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 4564

E: I think the wild card is IRAQ in the short term. If this is somehow settled peacefully the market will rocket and gold will not break to new recovery highs (above 330). However, the odds do not favor a peacefull settlement (egos on both sides, Bush's political life and Sadamn and his family and supporters actual lifes). I can't see either giving in. @ this point in time we need to see how low the market goes and then bounces. As for Japan comparisons. Of course we have huge debt and it will increase (Gov't, corporate, individual) until we have a good recession (which will be quite painful) and as the market anticipates this we set net lows. right now i'm in the camp the lows were set in Oct (notice many solid S&P co's did not retest the July lows JNJ comes to mind) but NAZ needs to hold 1220 area with good fear sentiment. Maybe my early DEC. Remember Japan twice meandered around 12000 area and then ran to 20000+. [some nice cycical bull moves within the bear] I'm playing this as a solid similar type rally. Its taken Japan 13 years to set new lows from the 89 high. Hopefully this secular bear is not as long. the miners should do ok over this period and of course if gold breaks 330 just jump in the miners. Tim