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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (14436)	11/9/2002 2:49:49 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

I should have said "the next cyclical bear move within this secular bear market" and implying that the next cyclical bear move will b preceded by what I believe we are in right now, a short term cyclical bull move. As far as the "sentiment" indicators are concerned, that cyclical bull move started July 23, as far as pricing, October 9th. Zeev

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (14436)	11/10/2002 8:43:55 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Justa, I believe you're right about the dollar continuing down. But I believe that is exactly what the Fed wants in order to decrease the risks of deflation. The spread between the the European rates and our own now are pretty big. So why wouldn't most people take their money out of the U. S. and invest in Europe for their increased rates. It must be that people perceive even greater risk in Europe. If our economy is ill then Europe's economy is in the hospital. Our engine of growth must be the locomotive for the global economy to recover. I believe the ECB realizes this and this is a reason that they didn't cut their own rates. What I don't understand about your dollar tanking posts is the necessity for that to bring down our equity market. A lower dollar decreases the risk of out right deflation. That seems like a good thing at this point in time and less of an evil than deflation. But I don't really understand the risks of a lower dollar presently. Would you care to elaborate? Thanks in advance.