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To: ild who wrote (203712)	11/9/2002 4:41:45 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Half Full Is Suddenly Half Empty gold-eagle.com For four weeks the donkey followed the carrot, grinning inanely and oblivious to everything else around it. On Wednesday it got the carrot, and after a very brief period of satisfaction munching away, started from a "thwack!" by a stick administered by a big gruff guy stood right behind it, who said, menacingly, "Remember me!" The donkey gulped, just like in the cartoons, and now stands in fear and trembling, the carrot suddenly forgotten. I believe most readers will understand this metaphor so that I don't need to explain it. So what now? In a nutshell - stocks down, dollar down, gold likely to creep up until it overcomes the restraining forces of the cartel, which will be signalled by a move above $340, then it will explode upwards, gold stocks up. It's a great time to short the banks after their recent strong run. JPM in particular is looking very vulnerable - like a beached whale waiting to be carved up and we can expect that they will in due course lose control of their derivatives monster - great news for gold. C looks a great short too, like a large overripe fruit on a branch, which you just know is going to plunge. What a great turning point! After the recent strong bear market rally we have stocks once more at levels that represent pure lunacy, relative to the fundamental situation and outlook. The dollar has smashed down out of its very bearish rising wedge pattern that formed over several months and is teetering over the next abyss. Gold is up in the $320's and challenging the cartel for the nth time to keep the lid on it and cartel members, apart from the Fed etc., are themselves in an increasingly precarious situation. I personally thought the general market would party a bit longer after the good news was out and spike up to about 9000 on the Dow, but it was not to be. Now with the dollar looking very vulnerable and bank stocks crumbling, it looks like time to hit the exits. I dumped my tech. stocks yesterday, no matter how good the individual charts looked - I can always buy them back as a trade after a plunge. On the other hand, many gold stocks look like they are about to come to life again. The chart of Silverado (SLGLF), in particular looks terrific - little downside and huge upside. Bema Gold (BGO), with a very deceptive chart like a flat-bottomed triangle, has huge upside potential. Caledonia Resources (CALVF) has a great chart, technically, and after several dreary months could surprise a lot of people, Cusac Gold (CUSIF) is already into a renewed short term uptrend and will eventually break up out of its trading range, Durban Deep's (DROOY) downtrend is believed to have ended in recent days at big round number support at $3.00 and it is now turning up, Vista (VGZ) is also turning up after a grim few weeks and has great %age potential. Golden Phoenix (GPXM), trampled down by funding problems, yet having good properties, will take off like a rocket once these are sorted out. Once the cartel has been smashed, only a matter of time, Gold and all these stocks are going to fly. I find it very interesting that so far in this major bear market we have had no panic. We came close to it in the summer but a combination of arm-twisting, intervention and manipulation managed to keep the thing limping along and even promote the bear market rally of recent weeks, which sucked in a few more hopefuls. All these measures only succeed in putting off the inevitable, however, and we still have a long way down to go from here. Continued intervention and manipulation may result in the general market going down in stages, but the danger of a really big selloff is ever present and is now at its greatest since July. Clive Maund email: Clive.Maund@t-online.de Kaufbeuren, Germany, 8 November 2002 Clive Maund is an English technical analyst living in southern Bavaria, Germany where he trades US markets. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

To: ild who wrote (203712)	11/9/2002 4:58:47 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

ild, I have no idea if Washington will fix double taxing on dividends. I am not going to make decisions on purchases of stocks based on the assumption that they would pass any stockholder friendly tax measures. I do not think the companies would be lobbying for this because they can manage their earnings better with using their capital to buy back stocks at high prices. If this tax initiative would pass the stockholders would demand dividends which would take away some of the punch to engineer the financials. I personally have not seen any changes in the way CEO's are operating in 2002 than in the 1990's. It looks to me like they are fighting change tooth and nail and the boys and girls in Washington are backing them. I am searching for foreign companies that deliver dividends that are not taxed by the governments where they do business . I think the Republicans will try and push through a fairly large tax break for the high income entities since they believe these folks/institutions will invest their capital to increase economic activity. I also think this will blow up in their face as most of this capital should flow overseas where there is more opportunity for return on capital. I am full of hope today. <g>