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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (17638)	11/11/2002 3:35:34 AM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Gottfried - BPCOMPQ study update -Model data back to August 1998 -I use separate Bear market and Bull market rules -I used the SOX index to calculate gains and losses -I used the SP500 to determine if a bear or bull market is currently underway - used 50x200 DMA crossover. Model went from bull to bear in October 2000, and has since stayed bear -Determined buy and short points based on moving average of BPCOMPQ, 15EMA for bear, 10EMA for Bull market. When slope of moving average turns positive goes positive, go long. When slope turns negative, go short. Only went short in Bull market if slope went negative and BPCOMPQ > 50. This never happened in the August 1998-October 2000 time frame. - Once buy or short initiated, sell 2/3 of position if gains > 10%. Sell other 1/3 if gains > 20%. If gains never get that high, sell when the slope of the moving average breaks down (rules defined on spreadsheet) - In Bear market, do not initiate long position if BPCOMPQ > 40. Also do not initiate short position if BPCOMPQ < 30. - In bull market, do not initiate long position > 50. Do not go short unless BPCOMPQ > 50 and slope is negative. Results: Started with $10000 in August 1998. Current value is $69,600 (on paper of course). Plan to add some of Larry Dudash criteria next. Larry initiates long and short positions at specific levels of BPCOMPQ - does not use slope of the moving average.