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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14496)	11/10/2002 1:32:00 PM
From: _scar_face_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

200 is fine. It's just that the 1222 call was made before the "market implosion" call if they were to cut .50. It's easy to assume from your prior call that a implosion suggests a far deeper retrenchment than the 1222 level (which was made on the basis of no rate cut, or at worse a .25). Had you mentioned at the time of the market implosion call upon a .50pt rate cut, that "unless exuberance is lacking in depth and breadth".. (or any indicator that could change it for that matter).. "that will change", it would be more understanding at THAT time. A 20/20 hindsight indicator change can be construed as a contradiction, while putting forth specific exceptions to a call beforehand can add more credence to the accuracy of a call. I'm not saying it was, but it came across as political if you will. Implosion suggests it is immune to other indicators, and there was no sign of any exception to it within the context of your post on that matter or any others regarding a .50 rate cut.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14496)	11/10/2002 9:04:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Zeev: Re: "The main reason I don't get lower is that the post cut exuberance was lacking in depth and breadth." So, the pre cut exuberance wasn't enough for you <g>?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14496)	11/27/2002 9:29:35 PM
From: _scar_face_	Respond to of 30712

Some implosion. Just imagine the rally we would of had if they raised rates as you suggested and were looking for at the time. <g>

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14496)	1/12/2003 11:25:06 AM
From: _scar_face_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Wait a minute. I think it was you who recommended that the fed increase rates initially to spur some economic activity (before they actually CUT .50bp). Now it's: A rise of interest rates on mortgages will kill the last bastion of strength in the consumer sector. investorshub.com My question is: What did you think mortgage rates would have done upon a ST interest rate INCREASE a while ago, and what effect would that have had on the "last bastion of the economy" -- and its economic effect?