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To: GraceZ who wrote (203778)	11/10/2002 3:35:42 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

By far my largest holding (about 15% of family net worth); will add more if the crazyminibubble goes on: Message 18218008

To: GraceZ who wrote (203778)	11/11/2002 12:35:35 AM
From: Israel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

If one were to have projected sales/revenues/earnings growth using the same metrics you just dictated on just about every NAZ listed tech stock, in 1999/2000, NAZ would be at 15000 and YHOO would have been trading at 3000 a share.. Its flawed to base your projections of future expectations based on past performance with a stock like EXPE.. Past quarters do not take into consideration competition factors (orbitz to name just one), future economic conditions (which i believe will be deplorable, therefore making EXPE business, come under severe pressure) ...give me an earnings projection for 2003 based on the growth trajectory set up in the last 8 quarters, of course, factoring in the percentage that rev/earnings growth is slowing or accelerating over that period. if I were to give you a estimate based on prior quarters, then EXPE would grow exponentially till it becomes the largest capitalized stock in the universe... Im short this stock based on the belief that: 1)Earnings cannot continue to accelerate at the current rate. (for one, based on weakening economic and industry conditions) 2)Barriers to entry to this business are not unlimited and therefore much like any growth sector, it will experience heavy competition in the near future. Namely orbitz.com 3)The stock trading at 9 times sales and 33 times next years projected earnings (minus charges of course, if one were to factor out charges the PE would jump to over 100), is priced for perfection. This is nothing but a travel agency with a $4.5 billion dollar market cap. you can take any projection and throw it out the window much like 99% of tech stocks did in the 1999/2000 and continue to do till this day.. Israel P.S. do you realize that EXPE has a larger market cap. that UAL, AMR and British Airways put together??