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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (52992)	11/10/2002 4:17:58 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

That is not the way it is shaping up. We won't really know that till numbers for Q4 are in but all indicators to date are that sell-in will be at least 5% up overall with TDMA, PDC, and AMPS down and GSM & CDMA up. My comparision was with '00....I think there was somewhere north of 400 million units sold in '00. I think this year will also be between 400-420 million units. If Qualcomm's projection of 85 million is accurate, CDMA unit growth will +~15% from the 74 million they reported last year. I think CDMA handset sales for '00 were somewhere around 65-68 million. That is not accurate so far as I know, even if all 17 of the newly licensed local Chinese manufacturers are actually producing. Here is a list (probably incomplete) of 55 manufacturers currently producing GSM subscriber equipment: How many General Dynamics handsets have you seen lately? I have my doubts about quite a few of the names on that list....but even if they are all accurate, I would say that CDMA has generated far more viable handset producers than GSM. If you parse through the handset sale numbers, you will find that Nokia probably has around 50% of the GSM unit sales for this year. How many of other players on that list are profitable or viable....even in the near-term? Qualcomm's CDMA infrastructure value chain has had their share of problems (though I would dispute that CDMA was the source of them). However, the handset players are faring well....and even better when you compare them to the various GSM players. Slacker