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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6850)	11/10/2002 8:56:11 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95597

Don, I am looking at the futures. Nasdaq slightly lower and the S&P 500 slightly higher. There are a lot of mixed signals in the contrarian indicators. The semi equips got two brokerages back on their side last Friday. You remember the notes at Briefing.com. It will be interesting to see if we get some actual upgrades soon because the SOX will probably continue to slide without the upgrades in my opinion. Some interesting reading here on the technicals of several indices including the SOX: biz.yahoo.com RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6850)	11/11/2002 9:00:42 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95597

From Briefing.com: CLTK Celeritek reduces Q3 outlook (7.04) Co reduces revenue expectations beginning in Q3 because Motorola, a primary buyer of Celeritek's power amplifier modules, has decided to discontinue its strategy of dual sourcing power amplifier modules. CLTK now sees Q3 revs of $10-$11 mln (Multex consensus $13.2 mln). CLTK expects the effect on revenues will be more significant beginning in Q4. MOT accounted for 43% of co's revs in 2002. DELL Dell Computer: Bear Stearns reiterates Outperform rating (29.79) Bear Stearns reiterates their Outperform rating on DELL, saying results should come in at or slightly better than its pre-announcement of $9.1 bln in rev and $0.21 in EPS; while the stock is not cheap relative to peer group, firm sees potential upside to $30-$35. NSM National Semi estimates raised at Solly (13.50) Salomon Smith Barney raises ests for NSM, saying turns business in the past month or so has improved meaningfully with a broad-based pickup in demand; raises FY03 est to breakeven from ($0.25) and FY04 to $0.45 from $0.15 (both in-line with consensus), and raises price target to $15 from $10. TSM Taiwan Semi downgraded at Goldman Sachs (8.68) Goldman Sachs out of Asia downgrades TSM to In-Line from Outperform, saying aggressive assumptions suggest there is further downside to the stock; raises price target to $6.60. Firm maintains Neutral stance on the sector, and would reduce holdings in Asian foundry, DRAM, and back-end stocks. 7:42AM Lehman raises IT sector weighting : Lehman increases their IT sector weighting for the first time in nearly a year, to 16% from 6% (vs the S&P 500 at 15%); thinks the major message of the Fed's surprise rate cut is that the new level of real short-term interest rates, -0.75%, is one associated with sustainable stock mkt rallies and profits recoveries. 7:18AM Oracle cut to Hold from Buy at Deutsche -- valuation (ORCL) 9.55: Deutsche Securities downgrades ORCL to Hold from Buy based on valuation, but raises price target to $9.70 from $9; if valuations for the group hold up heading into Q1, firm believes most stocks should pull back on a trading basis due to cautious 2003 guidance and the fact that March will be a seasonally weak qtr; recommends taking profits in SEBL, DCTM, MANU, and VAST; believes biz intelligence sector (COGN, BOBJ) will outperform over next 12 months. 7:17AM Infineon cut to Hold from Buy at Deutsche -- valuation (IFX) 9.51: finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+CLTK+DELL+IFX+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+ORCL+TER+TSM+TXN+XLNX+^VIX+^IXIC+^SPX&d=t RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6850)	11/15/2002 4:44:44 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95597

This is an update of the Group earnings estimates for the past 2 weeks. The trend in estimates is still down. DATA FROM FIRST CALL 10/31/02 11/14/02 EARNINGS EST EARNINGS EST EARNINGS CHG SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR AMAT 0.18 0.39 0.18 0.35 0.00 -0.04 ASML -0.22 0.15 -0.22 0.15 0.00 0.00 ASYT -0.41 0.49 -0.76 0.24 -0.35 -0.25 ATMI -0.31 0.05 -0.31 0.05 0.00 0.00 BRKS -1.51 -0.10 -1.52 -0.19 -0.01 -0.09 CMOS -1.26 -0.69 -1.26 -0.69 0.00 0.00 COHU -0.02 0.31 -0.13 -0.19 -0.11 -0.50 CYMI 0.43 0.51 0.38 0.45 -0.05 -0.06 DPMI -0.78 0.54 -1.21 0.28 -0.43 -0.26 EGLS -2.94 -2.24 -2.94 -2.24 0.00 0.00 FSII -1.21 -1.21 0.00 HELX -0.49 -0.09 -0.49 -0.09 0.00 0.00 KLAC 0.71 1.26 0.64 1.09 -0.07 -0.17 KLIC -1.41 -0.81 -1.41 -0.81 0.00 0.00 LRCX 0.05 0.43 0.04 0.43 -0.01 0.00 LTXX -0.76 -0.33 -0.76 -0.33 0.00 0.00 MTSN -2.10 -0.47 -2.10 -0.47 0.00 0.00 NANO -0.51 -0.14 -0.59 -0.36 -0.08 -0.22 NVLS 0.27 0.43 0.27 0.43 0.00 0.00 PHTN 0.75 0.65 1.20 -0.10 1.20 PLAB 0.12 0.22 0.12 0.22 0.00 0.00 SFAM -0.74 0.22 -0.77 0.22 -0.03 0.00 SMTL -0.46 0.13 0.04 0.50 -0.13 TER -1.18 -0.29 -1.18 -0.29 0.00 0.00 TGAL UTEK -0.78 -0.26 -0.78 -0.26 0.00 0.00 VECO 0.10 0.55 -0.11 0.26 -0.21 -0.29 WFR -0.22 0.40 -0.36 0.38 -0.14 -0.02 TOTAL -14.70 0.66 -15.79 -0.17 -1.09 -0.83