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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (14521)	11/10/2002 11:47:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

I do not want to be in puts the day he is overthrown in a coup (at least I do not think so). Thoughts? M

To: LTK007 who wrote (14521)	11/11/2002 2:56:21 AM
From: jjkirk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Max, Given your penchant for probability analysis...try this from my 15-year old memory bank...no doubt the intelligence system has been changed/refined significantly; however, this is sufficient to develop my response to you. I, too, would like to see the coup scenario...hari kari would elevate his stature and would complicate matters...that is an option I throw in because it would leave him a legacy....hmmm. In the intelligence business, we first filter information through two filters: Source -- A through F (A is most reliable): What is the reliability of the source? Has he been reliable in the past? Is it reasonable that he would have access to this type of information? What would motivate him to feed misinformation or disinformation? Is he under any financial or emotional stress? Is his family protected regardless of which way events turn out?...etc., etc. Probability -- 1 through 6 (1 is most likely/probable): What is the probability that observed factors are present? Are observations within the capabilities/modus operandi of observed entity? Has the observed factor been confirmed by independent sources? Are external or unusual forces at play that would cause observed factors outside the norm for this entity?...etc., etc. The fact that your 30% option agrees with Ike's 100% option is of interest to the intelligence evaluator. Ike has established credentials in that area. I am unaware of yours, Max. (If I have overlooked them, forgive me. This is merely a demonstration of the rudiments of intelligence analysis.) Given the aforementioned factors, I evaluate the two otherwise identical reports differently. My scores are: Max F4 Ike C4 ' ' ' ' that was an enjoyable little diversion......jj