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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (17642)	11/11/2002 3:18:17 AM
From: augieboo	Respond to of 23153

Hi Warp, Yes, I have deployed money based on my calls. Unfortunately my most recent deployment was a tad early, to say the least. I went clownishly short via RYVNX, (the Rydex -2x NDX fund), on October 17, at NDX 945. As of Friday, I "only" need another 70 points of down to get back to that level, plus a chunk more to make up for the down vs up difference. Despite that not-so-wonderful entry, I feel as though I've recently made a big swing around the learning curve -- I think I've begun to "see" the market, (rather than just a bunch of charts). The biggest contributing factor to this has been learning multiple time-frame analysis from LG on the MDA thread on iHub. (I've also been reviewing a lot of the basics and reading a bunch of new stuff too.) (: augie

To: Warpfactor who wrote (17642)	11/11/2002 3:25:42 AM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Speaking of charts... USING % NET ADVANCING ISSUES TO FIND BOTTOMS/TOPS The net of advancing issues, (vs the total issues on the index), is sometimes said to be useful in predicting trend changes on the Nasdaq COMP. To test this assertion, I decided to create some charts, using data from Nasdaq. The problem though is that the number of issues on the Naz keeps dropping as the Bear grinds on, thus making longer- term comparisons suspect. I decided, therefore, to chart the difference between Percentage of Net Advancing Issues and the Percentage of Net Declining Issues. [Note: I titled this post USING % NET ADVANCING ISSUES TO FIND BOTTOMS/TOPS, rather than Using the Difference between Percentage of Net Advancing Issues and the Percentage of Net Declining Issues TO FIND BOTTOMS/TOPS because the latter is more than the eight words iHub allows for a title. {g/ng} {Caveat: I'm not sure I'm explaining this correctly, and I'm not really even sure I did the math right, as Stat 1 was a long time ago. If anybody spots flaws in my procedures, please let me know.} Methodology: 1. I downloaded the data from the NASDAQ web site, which is available in Microsoft Excel format at at marketdata.nasdaq.com 2. Next, I used Excel to figure the Net advancers for the years 2001 and 2002. (Unfortunately, the data that Nasdaq offers is spotty in coverage, and the "unchanged" issues data is not available from the year 2000, which is why I only went back through 2001.) Formula: [Advancers / (Advancers + Decliners + Unchanged)] - [Decliners / (Advancers + Decliners + Unchanged)] 3. I then reformatted the results into percentages, and used Excel's "Insert Chart" function to create these charts. What is on these charts? -- All of the charts include the Nasdaq daily close figures for the period in question. -- The first chart overlays each day's net advancers. This chart is extremely "spikey," so I did a bit more work with the info and created several more charts. The remaining charts show the COMP closing numbers with a moving average of Net Advancers superimposed over it. To keep things simple, (not to mention readable), each chart shows only a single moving average. The moving averages covered, in order of appearance, are 5, 8, 13, and 21 days long. The $64,000 Question: What do these charts tell us about the direction of the COMP over the next few days/weeks/months? In the near-term, i.e., this coming week, these charts seem to indicate a correction is coming very soon. Over a longer term, however, comparing these charts to the patterns they drew during the April 2000 and post 9/11/2001 rallies seems to hint that this rally is not as dead as many, (including yours truly), have been assuming. Opinions anyone? The charts may be viewed at: investorshub.com