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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (14784)	11/11/2002 12:32:23 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

One thing I never got an answer to was whether those collars that they instituted after the 87 crash meant that the VIX couldn't spike over 100 again. I suspect thats true, but not sure. Is there actual consensus from someone other than a perma-bear that this is a secular bear market? I never heard that term until about a year ago, now its all over SI as some sort of given. It used to be you were in a bull or a bear and that was it... bears were shorter. The valuation argument (that stocks are too high) doesn't really fly on the tech stocks, but may on the other sectors - I haven't looked. L

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (14784)	11/11/2002 1:13:56 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Being scared and actually selling are two different things. I contend that most people still have high level of allocation to equities in their 401Ks. The outflows in july and august is a fraction of the assets in stocks in 401 Ks. I don't think the bear market ends till we see a lot more outflows from stock funds. That will happen as the bear market rolls on. The most widely held stocks in Merril Lynch accounts (according to NY times) still remains CSCO, AOL, MSFT etc. That doesn't sound like people have given up on stocks. At the end of the bear market you will see that fraction of the American public holding equities will be much lower than it is today. Anindo

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (14784)	11/11/2002 1:22:19 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Is it possible for a residential RE market to crash by 40-50% would you say... or is that outside the realm of possibility given interest rates and the illiquidity of the RE market? There's a house near me selling for $830K. In 1994, my guess is it sold for $450. Job prospects in SV are worse now than they were then, and there are certainly more rentals available. (during the entire 90s even early on, renting here was a nightmare). Commercial leases are down 80-90%... I know residential is correcting here but can't figure out how to gauge it. Lizzie