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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (12484)	11/11/2002 11:09:54 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 57110

Si

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (12484)	11/12/2002 8:15:26 AM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 57110

Updated: 12-Nov-02 General Commentary So far the decline off the recovery highs has been within the normal parameters of a mild correction. In other words, nothing to get worried about. Or is there? Though key supports have held until now, we are concerned by a number of factors. First, the bellwether SOX index is falling at a more rapid pace than the rest of the sector - never a good sign. Again, index has yet to fall back below its 50-day moving average, but given the bleak earnings outlook and the sloppy technical tone a test of this floor in the next few days is highly likely. Should the index break below this floor (269.59) would be a decidedly bearish signal for rest of the sector. Briefing.com is also concerned by the market's complacency over the Q4/Q1 earnings outlook. Stocks rallied sharply, in many cases by more than 40%, despite fact that most companies offered very dour forecasts for IT spending over the next 6-months. Considering that many on the street were predicting a sizeable earnings recovery over the next few quarters, we think future estimates still need to come down. And as they do, stock prices most likely to follow. Finally, the headlines are shifting from positive to negative- with the ongoing risk of war in Iraq at the top of the list. Not sure how far indices will slide during this correction, but until investors have better visibility on these issues and until the market proves it can hold at major support levels, Briefing.com sees no reason to be aggressive on the long-side. Robert Walberg briefing.com...