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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (17679)	11/12/2002 2:14:31 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Bear market over - When corporate bond spreads over treasuries start a sharp decline - this is close, might happen in January. Dow maybe at 6000. Valuations are still too high for most S&P stocks. P/E for S&P will need to be about 18-20 right now it's about 23. Nasdaq stocks are more along in this process. Remeber that the bull market for Nasdaq & tech ended in March 2000, and it dropped before the S& P ahd a serious drop. I expect there will be a difference in who leads the way to a bull market. I also think we will see new leadership - likely from energy, defense , maybe biotech or drugs. Banks tend to lag, and may be dragging until late 2003 or 2004 until all the defaults are worked through. We are seeing Way too many stocks blow up and crater - Tenet Health Care, Adelphia, Utilities, etc. Money is still leaving the market, although at a slower rate. Also need to see some mergers and fewer names - and that has not happened yet.