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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38388)	11/12/2002 4:07:28 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69169

[madtrader] Mon Nov 11, 9:15pm PST QQQ Kind of interesting to see how two different Fibonacci levels meet at the same spot. Using Oct 8th low and Nov 4th highs as reference points, the 38% retracement level puts QQQ at 24. By using the Oct 29th lows and Nov 4th highs as reference points for short term studies, the 79% retracement level is also 24. For the interemediate term trend, a retracement of 38% is normal. For short term traders, a break of 79% spells more trouble ahead. So needless to say that 24 will be the key level to watch tomorrow. My gut feeling is I will be more aggressive on the long side around 24. Even with a minimal bounce (38% retracement to the upside), we should see 25. So the plan is buy 24, sell 25 ahead of the expiration. none. [madtrader] Mon Nov 11, 7:03pm PST volume BTW, I failed to mention earlier that volume was lighter still today. This is enough of a sign that things should turn around soon. Declines with shrinking volume is perfectly acceptable, and it suggests the big boys aren't dumping. none. Register for our newsletter [madtrader] Mon Nov 11, 4:06pm PST market A lot of talk out there how this is the start of the slide to the October lows. I am not sure if I buy that. Here is why. COMPX has bounced off it's October lows to match August highs. That's a 100% retracement, in technical terms, it invalidates the prior down trend. Not so with DJI, OEX or SPX. Those three retraced roughly 79% of the move, which is the last line in the sand. So one could make a case that the prior down trend is still in place. The discussion is academic for short term traders like me. So, getting back to intraday charts here. Looking at 15 minute charts for major indices, they are share one common pattern. Which is that of a falling wedge. This coupled with declining volume again today, suggests a bounce is coming. Perhaps as soon as tomorrow. Of course, there is always the possibility that they head lower at the open. I would expect the downside move short term to be contained around DJI 8300 and COMPX 1300. Watch for a break above DJI 8400, COMPX 1335 for confirmation of the upside bounce. none.