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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (56717)	11/12/2002 9:12:10 PM
From: frankw1900	Respond to of 281500

"They [the Chechens] talk about killing non-Muslims and if you are a Christian, you are in danger. And even if you are an atheist, you are in danger," Mr Putin is quoting as saying. "If you decide to become a Muslim - even then you are not safe, because traditional Islam contradicts the conditions and goals that they [the Chechens rebels] set. I believe Putin is saying, "It's too late, the Islamists have already taken over the Chechen movement. It's a new ballgame." Sure, one could argue perhaps, that the Russian response to the original Chechen urge for independence created this problem but that doesn't get him much further. He has to deal with the situation as it is now. It may well be he's telling the truth: islamist activities in other muslim countries in the area suggest he might be. Ninety percent of the Chechen population may hate and despise the islamists but if the other 10% are islamists and are willing to die in the cause, and have financing and external support, then they can make the country essentially ungovernable - this especially so if the country is under external attack. Worse, from the point of view of both Russia and ordinary muslim citizens of Chechnya, the islamists are expansionary, and a country in such disarray as Chechnya can serve as a base for expansion into neighbouring countries. Afghanistan redux. So, what can Putin do? For sure, given the expansionary nature of the islamist ideology, he can't do nothing. The thing most likely to work is promoting clean, trustworthy, (by the citizens), governments in neighbouring countries. (Difficult when he's got to do that in his own country). The governments of the surrounding countries are in varying degrees corrupt, and worse, are effectively economically illiterate and likely to remain so because of the corruption. But if successful in supporting a buffer of reasonably decent governments in surrounding countries he could confine the worst aspects of islamism to Chechnya and concentrate on finding effective non islamist elements in Chechnya. Not easy. Not short term. Particularly in Chechnya where there's lots of bad blood. Eventually, when the Russians get a modicum of control in Chechnya they will have to ask the UN to come and help establish/reestablish the Chechen nation's institutions and government.