From Brieifng.com: Updated: 13-Nov-02 - General Commentary
After retreating by 7% over the past few days, the Nasdaq snapped back a bit in Tuesday's trading. In fact, index gapped higher off the open and never looked back. Though gains were modest and there was some selling into the close - related to blue-chip weakness - index's ability to hold above key support in the 1320-1300 range was encouraging to see.
Wireless and Networking stocks paced Tuesday's rebound, with the former group getting a lift from Vodafone's (VOD 17.58 +13.8%) better-than-expected earnings. Riding VOD's coattails were AT&T Wireless (AWE 6.68 +8.4%), Nextel (NXTL 11.93 +8.7%) and Sprint PCS (PCS 4.14 +15%). Networkers were paced by Corning (GLW 2.60 +20.4%), which surged on news it had sold its TV Lens unit to 3M for roughly $850 mln. Deal provides GLW with needed infusion of cash. Other networking/telecom equip stocks on the rise included Ciena (CIEN 3.72 +6.3%), Extreme Networks (EXTR 4.47 +11.8%), Foundry Networks (FDRY 7.35 +10.5%), Tellabs (TLAB 7.04 +6.8%) and Cisco (CSCO 12.87 +5.8%).
Relatively upbeat comments out of Oracle (ORCL 9.50 +5%) and Motorola (MOT 8.75 +4.4%) also gave bulls reason for optimism - as the latter stood by guidance while the former talked about a turnaround occurring early next year. Cisco's comments that it was comfortable with its current backlog and wasn't looking to reduce headcount boosted trader morale as well.
Overall, bulls had to be pleased with the participation of the rebound if not the volume. Trading remained light, with only about 1.5 bln shares traded on the Nasdaq. Traders will want to see volume pick up on any additional gains before moving aggressively back to the long-side.
Looking ahead, sector will takes its cue from Applied Materials (AMAT) and Dell Computer (DELL)... AMAT reports earnings on Wednesday, with DELL following the next day... Of the two, Dell has best potential to trigger a broad-based rally - especially if company suggests that conditions in the depressed PC business is picking up.
However, as Briefing.com noted in a Story Stock on Dell, company is trading at lofty valuations and bumping up against major multi-year resistance. Consequently, unless firm posts blowout numbers and gives much rosier outlook than expected, traders likely to sell into any news-related gain over the short-term.
Robert Walberg, Briefing.com
5:31PM Network Appliance comments on demand environment (NTAP) 9.77: -- Update -- On call, company remains cautious on the IT spending environment ... sees "no change to a tough environment" with "customers not anxious to spend money."
5:27PM Network Appliance gives Q3 revenue guidance (NTAP) 9.23: -- Update -- On call, company expects Q3 (Jan) net sales to grow 2-5% sequentially to $219-225 mln as compared to the Multex consensus estimate of $224.6 mln.
5:14PM Network Appliance gives color on Q2 (NTAP) 9.23: -- Update -- On conference call, company reports that the book-to-bill for Q2 (Oct) finished "well over 1" ... add that inventory turns were approximately 10 days in Q2, down from 11 in Q1, due to several new product introductions, among other reasons.
4:34PM Network Appliance updates Q3 guidance (NTAP) 9.77 +0.54: -- Update -- Hearing from traders citing Dow Jones that co sees Q3 earnings of $0.05-$0.06 per share -- Multex consensus estimate is for earnings of $0.06 per share.
4:09PM Network Appliance matches estimates (NTAP) 9.77 +0.54: Reports Q2 (Oct) earnings of $0.05 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 10.5% year/year to $215.2 mln vs the $213.3 mln consensus.
Close Dow +27.05 at 8,386.00, S&P +6.77 at 882.95, Nasdaq +30.37 at 1,349.56: An up day, but very disappointing...stock opened higher as a bounce after the large sell-off yesterday...the positive tone led to a surge in the indices around 10:30 ET when Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Ferguson hit the wires with generally upbeat comments about the economic outlook...the Dow went as high as +145, but then Dow component Philip Morris (MO 37.03 -5.95) put out a press release saying it is "not in the position to confirm its previous projection of 8% to 10% growth" for next year...the stock tanked...
that may have set the tone for a last hour sell-off in which the Dow lost virtually all its gains...MO on the day took 40 points off the Dow by itself...there was also a news report of a tape reportedly with Bin Laden's voice that indicates he is alive, which may have undermined the weakened sentiment as well...the Nasdaq did much better, opening strongly, trending higher, and holding more of its gains...Cisco (CSCO 12.87 +0.71) was a leader as CEO Chambers implied the order backlog looked better....Oracle (ORCL 9.50 +0.45) got a boost as its CFO said he expected a rebound in orders during 2003...Dell (DELL 29.48 +0.37) was up on positive comments from JP Morgan...
volume was never heavy, which in retrospect underscored the fragility of the early gains...now, with the loss of 178 in the Dow yesterday, the index still has quite a climb to end with the sixth straight weekly gain...Wal-Mart reports earnings ahead of the open tomorrow and Kohl's reports after the close...DJUA -2%, DOT +3.3%, Nasdaq 100 +3%, Russell 2000 +1.5%, SOX +3.9%, S&P Midcap 400 +0.9%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1985/1252, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2095/1214
12:00PM : Stocks opened higher on a bounce from yesterday's large decline...then, Fed Vice Chairman Ferguson hit the wires with comments that were generally upbeat about the economic outlook for 2003...his comments were fairly tame, but he wasn't cautious, and that may have alleviated fears of a double-dip recession...or, it was just another push for those looking to buy after yesterday...starting to look like the indices might simply reverse yesterday's losses, leaving neutral trend intact...
techs are strong on the backs of three leaders: Cisco (CSCO 12.82 +0.73) Chairman Chambers suggested the backlog of orders is picking up, the Oracle (ORCL 9.45 +0.40) CFO forecast a pickup in business in late 2003, and Dell (DELL 29.67 +0.56) has benefited from positive comments from JP Morgan...the SOX semiconductor index is up almost 5% as well...volume is average, but not as heavy as might be expected on an up day like this...bonds keep on rallying.DJTA +0.8%, DJUA -1.6%, Nasdaq 100 +3.4%, SOX +5.0%, NYSE Adv/Dec 2059/972, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1951/1074
11:47AM Sector Movers : VOD +14% results spark rally in Wireless Sector: TPC +15.5%, ERICD +13%, NXTL +11.5%, PCS +11%, AWE +10.5%, WWCA +9%... Energy stocks benefit from WMB +10.5% settlement with California: MIR +10%, AES +8,5%, RRI +5%, CPN +4.5%... Telecom Equipment is another sector experiencing impressive gains today: GLW +19.5%, EXTR +15%, AGR.A +12%, FDRY +9%, TLAB +8.5%, ALA +7%, ADCT +7.5%, JNPR +7.5%, NT +7%.
11:30AM Cisco Systems approaches resistance (CSCO) 12.80 +0.64: -- Update -- -- Technical -- Has rallied an impressive 6.5% off yesterday's late low. However, has been stymied thus far by resistance at the upper end of the seven session trading range (closing high 12.96, intraday high at 13.06). Intraday support is at 12.80/12.70 with no damage to the recovery mode while 12.50 holds firm. If a breakout is seen short term, initial resistance is at 13.20/13.25 followed by 13.50 (Sep gap).
10:49AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : The semi sector continues to pace the way on the upside this morning with the index (SOX +4.9% at 297) recently pushing to a new session high. Top performers include: MXIM +7.3%, LSCC +8.7%, AMD +8.4%, MOT +6%, XLNX +7.7% and LSI +4.3%. The SOX index is facing a solid resistance barrier in the 298/300 area followed by 302/303. Next short term resistances for the Semi HOLDRS are at 24.25/24.45 followed by 24.65/24.75.
10:30AM Lehman reiterates cautious view on telecom equipment co's, Alcatel : Lehman has concluded that most communications tech stocks today are somewhere between fully-valued to richly-valued, especially given the risks that still stand in their way for the next 12 months; firm is particularly concerned with ALA ahead of Thursday's Deutsche Telecom strategy day, where firm thinks an announcement of further cap-ex cuts is likely.
10:28AM Cisco Systems CEO comments on backlog (CSCO) 12.61 +0.45: Reuters reports that CEO Chambers told investors that co's backlog is above the $1.4 billion it reported on Sept. 9. "I'm very comfortable with and it is comfortably above $1.4 billion," he told investors at a UBS Warburg.
10:05AM S&P 500 Intraday : -- Technical -- Index is consolidating after opening push falters at 884 resistance. Intraday supports are at 880 and 878 with a continued posture above keeping the very short term bias favorable. Next resistances are at 887/888 with a stronger ceiling at 891/892. Failure opens the door for a run at yesterday's low (874.63).
9:53AM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Bias still favorable but the index slipped back after stalling near resistance in the 1336/1338 area. Initial support is at 1328/1326 with a continued stabilization above here leaving the door open for another push to the upside. Next resistances are at 1343 and 1347/1350. Secondary supports on a failure are at 1319 (yesterday's low) followed by 1313/1310.
9:51AM United Micro capex plans for 2003 (UMC) 4.28 +0.09: Trading floor sources telling us that Salomon Smith Barney is making a proprietary call on UMC capex for 2003; based on comments from UMC's CEO that 2003 capex would be well below 2002, Salomon now sees a 56-63% decrease to $300-350 mln in 2003. Though UMC is only 1.5% of total semi capex, this sharp decline could still have a psychological impact in semi equipment stocks.
9:43AM Sector Watch : Broad based gains in early action with the wireless sector (YLS +4.3%) pacing the way following VOD (+12%) earnings. Also posting solid gains are the semi, networking, telecom, computer-hardware, software, retail, oil service and financial sectors. Currently little other than gold on the defensive.
9:05AM Celeritek cut to Hold at Needham after yesterday's warning (CLTK) 5.44:
8:39AM Dell Computer may exceed consensus, guide higher - JP Morgan (DELL) 29.11: JP Morgan believes that there is a possibility that DELL may exceed firm's Q3 rev/EPS ests of $9.098 bln/$0.21 due to continued mkt share gains and strength in industry standard servers; in addition, firm says there is a possibility that the co may guide above consensus for Q4.
8:32AM Hewlett-Packard estimates cut at JP Morgan (HPQ) 14.85: JP Morgan believes that despite improvements in overall cost structure, the enterprise segment is improving at a slower than expected pace and the current above-avg printing margins are not sustainable; cuts FY03 EPS est to $1.14 from $1.20 (consensus is $1.17).
8:26AM Advanced Micro cuts chip prices - Digitimes (AMD) 5.95: Digitimes.com reports that AMD, in response to INTC's lowering of Celeron processor prices the day before, cut the prices of its low-end and medium-range Athlon XP processors yesterday.
8:12AM Scientific-Atlanta estimates cut at CSFB; target is $9 (SFA) 11.80: CSFB cuts FY03-04 ests for SFA, saying the broad adoption of low-end set-tops could lead to as much as 10-15% downside to firm's CY03 sales forecast; cuts FY03 rev/EPS ests to $1.21 bln/$0.58 from $1.22 bln/$0.60 and FY04 to $1.00 bln/$0.52 from $1.16 bln/$0.60 (both well below consensus). Reiterates Underperform rating and $9 price target.
8:05AM Oracle CFO sees rev growth in 2003 (ORCL) 9.05: Stock ticks up to $9.20 in pre-market following comments last night by the CFO that business should stabilize in the 1st-half of 2003. ("During the first half of calendar '03, we'll start to see this thing turn around," Henley said at OracleWorld. After that, Henley said he expects company to "return to positive revenue growth." -- Reuters)... Based on current Multex estimates, analysts were already expecting ORCL to show rev growth in CY03, with 3.5% yr/yr rev growth expected in the FebQ and 3% growth in the MayQ.
7:47AM Flextronics downgraded at CIBC (FLEX) 8.00: CIBC downgrades to SECTOR PERFORM from Sector Outperform due to reduced ests and recent run-up in valuation. Firm says March 2003 ests are realistic for the EMS group, but June expectations are too high and consequently firm is cutting ests for the sector to reflect only 5% QoQ growth in revenue.
7:47AM Wireless companies higher pre-market after Vodafone delivers upside surprise :
7:43AM Photronics upgraded at CIBC on valuation (PLAB) 10.70: CIBC upgrades to SECTOR PERFORM from Sector Underperform based on valuation; firm says revised guidance confirms that it is both the volume and cost leader among US-based mask manufacturers; price target is $20.
6:55AM CoorsTek receives $21 buy-out bid from Coors family (CRTK) 15.42: Co's Board of Directors has received an offer from certain members of the Coors family and related trusts to purchase all of CoorsTek's outstanding shares of common stock not held by them for a price of $21.00 per share. The CoorsTek Board of Directors is evaluating this offer and intends shortly to engage financial advisors to assist with the evaluation.
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