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To: rogermci® who wrote (5507)	11/12/2002 2:15:14 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

September 2002 p/c ratio chart. stockcharts.com[r,a]dhcaynay[d20020901,20021012][pb50!b200][iub14][J7424892,Y]&listNum=1

To: rogermci® who wrote (5507)	11/12/2002 2:31:54 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

In general I agree with you. I see the CBOE equity P/C is .74 which is fairly high. But... 1) These numbers reflect only CBOE, and I have an equity P/C ratio of .62 today for all exchanges, which is neutral. 2) You must remember this is a moment in time and a single day reading is only helpful if you're trading very small time frames and even then it is not that much help IMO, only a clue. I have a 10 day EMA of equity P/C siting at .57 which reflects bullish sentiment. Sure we have relatively higher P/C today but what about the all the calls traded in the last few weeks? We presumably use these numbers to gauge sentiment and use them as a contrary indicator right rogermci? Well far more options traders will be right than wrong should we rally right here, a peek at open interest will tell you that. Even if you only use CBOE data, take a look at this chart and you can see that the MA's show put/call in neutral territory: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[dd][pc20][vc60]&pref=G I find too many traders (both bulls and bears) make wayyyyyy too much out of single day readings and neglect the trend. All you have to do is see all the readings on the above chart which are over 1.00 during May, June and July to see how irrelevant they are. We still fell like a rock until the end of July.

To: rogermci® who wrote (5507)	11/12/2002 7:05:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 10157

You can cut slice or dice this. There are now 149K calls at QQQ 25 vs 80K puts. Had I seen that stat intraday I would have bought my QQQ puts back. F*CK PC ratios other than 10EMA or longer. That said, we seem to be putting in a floor on QQQ 24 for Dec 24. Enormous #'s of puts there. Enormous numbers of calls at QQQ 26. We are likely to chop between 24-26 for a month driving everyone mad. This suggests mild to choppy up after OE. See you got a bullish forecast out of me. M

To: rogermci® who wrote (5507)	11/13/2002 12:34:41 AM
From: Sword	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

Bernie Schaeffer disagrees with your view of PC ratio. From today's commentary: "On a quantitative basis, the 21-day moving average of the CBOE equity put/call ratio has declined rapidly from its October peak near 0.80, which brought with it with it a bullish market backdrop. Currently, this trendline is leveling off at the 0.66 level. As with many past expiration weeks, single-day readings may be elevated this week, causing the ratio to at best remain flat and at worst, begin to climb. A renewed rise in the 21-day put/call ratio would imply a weakening market." schaeffersresearch.com