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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (25368)	11/12/2002 5:49:25 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

There isn't anything unusual in my ideas about investment just standard ideas in economics that any economist regardless of school of thought should agree with. Well, that is my interest in your thinking. It probably has loads of clout in economists circles, but has squat in mine. Doesn't mean I am right of course. If I was, I would be up a few millions by now. I'm not. Only took an interest in the economy over the last two years or so. Very happy to see you critic any ideas I have, and interested in your ideas of course. rgds, pb.

To: Moominoid who wrote (25368)	11/13/2002 12:13:19 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

2-3 percent- That's a world wide number. Korea grew at 5-8 % percent for about 2 decades. China is growing at about that rate now, depending on how you discount the official numbers. US economy grew at about 3-4 % in the 1960s. The bar code industry grew at 15-20% per year from the mid 1970s to late 1990s. I expect it will resume growth, but maybe closer to 10%. If I move money from overpriced tech to under priced oil, the return to society will be greater - the over investment just produces excess capacity - like empty office building in Dallas in the 1980s, the 70 + disk drive companies funded by VCs in the 1970s, or the miles of 'dark fiber' telecom overcapacity of the 1990s. If you move capital to where and when it is needed, you can get better returns. Some times this has risk...some times not. Moving capital from Japan, where it is producing a 1% return in a good year, thru Jay, to China, where it produces a 10% return (or better) will help bring the average worldwide return up.