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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (2671)	11/12/2002 4:47:06 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 13403

OT I mainly agree with these points. But I disagree with you as to the extent of this rally and the importance of seasonality. In my view, the seasonal component for stocks in general and tech stocks in particular, is quite pronounced. The general pattern is bottom in October, top in March. The reasons for the strong seasonals this time of year are: (1) bargain hunting in a tax loss, window dressing littered environment; (2) Tech conference season, e.g. biz.yahoo.com, biz.yahoo.com; (3) Christmas ramp up in volumes (The latest tech toys have to be produced in increased volume during the Fall to get them on store shelves between Thanksgiving and Xmas, regardless of whether or not consumers ever buy them). So, even in this bear market, I expect the bull rally to continue after an appropriate pause (perhaps a 50% retracement of the gains off the bottom). I could see the Naz reaching the 1950 level in the Jan-March timeframe, before the bear once again resumes its grip and we go to lower Oct 03 lows.