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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bilow who wrote (56859)11/13/2002 12:51:51 AM
From: Clarksterh  Respond to of 281500
 
My guess that the west would allow Saudi Arabia to possess nukes (or might move nukes to Saudi Arabia itself) is well supported by history. The US supplied assistance to both Iraq and Iran as it sought to balance them against each other. And the US certainly hasn't been hesitant to allow Saudi Arabia to buy huge amounts of very effective modern US technology. If the option truly were to allow Saddam to beat up on the Saudis and obtain an oil monopoly, then sure, the US would drop the non proliferation stance and allow Saudi Arabia to arm itself.

Possibly, but would you approve of that?! But lets address the possibilities - first, we'd have to know when he got the bomb. It seems he's pretty good at hiding that. Second, we'd have to be willing to do much the same as we are currently doing with N. Korea - costing billions and billions, putting 100s of thousands of US troops at risk, allowing all the Iraqis to continue to suffer, ... . This is fact seems more interventionist than just squeezing now.

The fact is that nuclear weapons, due to their diplomatic consequences, are useless weapons. Saddam couldn't use them to make Malta roll over, much less Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. Nukes are simply not a useful weapon for an aggressor. The whole history of the cold war is that nukes are defensive weapons possessed by states that want to protect their homelands from foreign military action, not weapons that allow anyone to invade and takeover anything.

First, this assumes that Saddam is cares about diplomatic consequences and is rationally able to assess them. Given his past behavior this is far from an obvious proposition.

Second there is a reasonably good chance that Saddam wouldn't be using them as an offensive weapon. He'd be using them as an effective deterent to prevent anyone from intervening when he invaded Kuwait (which he actually considers his) and Saudia Arabia, Iran, ... (which he seems to consider his by right of destiny). A type of defensive weapon and a very very effective one as your own quoted history shows.

Cause it's not my fight.

Exactly what England, France and the US said in the late 30's. But when confronting a megalomaniac with invading ambitions (which both Hitler and Saddam have shown) in charge of relatively large resources it turns out to be wrong.

Yes, but (a) Iraq isn't in my neighborhood, (b) Iraq isn't a criminal, it's a country, (c) a nuke is not a gun.

a) See above - they will be in your neighborhood eventually. But at least you are honest about your concern only being yourself and your immediate friends in the immediate future.

b) Iraq is without doubt the international version of a criminal - Saddam loves to invade other countries that are no threat to him whatsoever. Can't really get more criminal than that in international relations.

c) Well no, its not. Its worse.

Clark



To: Bilow who wrote (56859)11/13/2002 4:40:46 AM
From: Ilaine  Respond to of 281500
 
>> But if Saddam had nukes, I bet that the west would approve of Saudi Arabia having them as a counter weight.<<

Er, no. That giant sucking sound you hear is the US ungluing itself from Saudi Arabia.