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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (9229)	11/13/2002 6:21:49 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

U.S. Estimates Terror Attacks Cost By AMY WESTFELDT Associated Press Writer Tue Nov 12, 6:21 PM ET NEW YORK (AP) - The attack that destroyed the World Trade Center has cost the city $33 billion to $36 billion in lost wages and business, property damage and cleanup, Federal Reserve (news - web sites) experts said Tuesday. The losses, estimated from October 2001 through June, include $7.8 billion the 2,795 people killed in the trade center attack would have earned had they lived and $21.6 billion to clean up and replace the twin towers. The report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York appears in the November issue of the bank's Economic Policy Review. The Sept. 11 attack "significantly reduced the productive potential of the New York City economy" and hit the airline, restaurant, hotel and financial services industries especially hard, the report said. Those businesses accounted for 42,000 of the 51,000 private-sector jobs lost in the city in October 2001 alone, the report said. The financial services industry, with many businesses headquartered at the trade center, lost 12,000 jobs in October and an additional 6,000 jobs through June, the report said. The number of jobs at the city's two airports fell by about 20 percent. The report calculated the lost income of the victims of the attacks by finding the average income of trade center employees — $127,000 a year — their average age, and estimating how much they would earn until they retired. The loss amounted to $2.8 million per worker. The city lost an additional $3.6 billion to $6.4 billion in wages from job cuts and reduced hours in businesses like the restaurant industry, the report said. Studies showed some residents also smoked and drank more and became depressed after the attacks, which likely also cut productivity. The cleanup and replacement costs for the World Trade Center includes a $1.4 billion estimate to replace a commuter rail hub destroyed underneath the center. An $11.2 billion estimate to replace the trade center's two towers assumed that officials "will essentially duplicate what existed before the attack." Six architects have issued competing proposals for developing the site and no conclusions have been reached.

To: lurqer who wrote (9229)	11/13/2002 6:40:31 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Today, on this thread and on Les Horowitz's thread, links were posted to: chartoftheday.com While the point of the chart is obvious, let's look a little deeper. Note the vertical dashed line marked Average PE ratio at major stock market bottoms(1940-2000) Reserving comment on the 1970 "bottom", the other bottoms that are greater than the average were of bear corrections in a secular bull market. The four bottoms less than the average were in secular bear markets. If you believe we're currently in a secular bear market, the implications are ominous. Now, let's consider that 1970 bottom. On an inflation adjusted market chart, there is no 1970 bottom - only a pause on the plunge from the 1966 high to the 1974 bottom. However, since I believe that the plunge from the 2000 mania peak will be interrupted for demographic reasons, I find the 1970 data interesting. To me, it says that even a bounce (for more than a few months) in the markets plunge will occur from much lower levels. JMO lurqer