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To: ild who wrote (204554)	11/14/2002 1:37:54 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

From latest contraryinvestor.com ...As you know, the large commercial traders of S&P 500 futures (folks walking around with 1,000 contracts or more in their back pockets) are often worth monitoring as they have been considered by many as "smart money". Infallible? Of course not, but who is? The track record of eventual successful outcomes post net short and long position trend changes by these participants is relatively decent. One of the largest short positions amassed by these folks in over a year was seen in March of 2002, right before the April through July downside correction. The commercial traders decreased their net short position all the way into late September. With the recent rally, this has again turned and net shorts are once again growing. The commercials have been a bit early in anticipating directional changes over the past few years, but they have been consistently correct on balance in their forward judgment. The current absolute level of net short positions is not screaming market collapse dead ahead. In fact far from it. But it's the change in direction that we'd suggest is important after what has been a good six month run of becoming less short on a net basis. Just a straw in the wind. SP500 historical COTs softwarenorth.net