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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (6874)	11/13/2002 10:36:41 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95639

From Briefing.com: Updated: 14-Nov-02 - General Commentary Stocks rallied in response to news that Iraq had accepted the UN resolutions, but failed to build on the advance into the close. One reason for this is simple - acceptance does not equal compliance, and many traders remain skeptical that Iraq will live up to demands. Second, traders were reluctant to build long positions ahead of earnings from Applied Materials (AMAT) and Dell (DELL). Of the two heavy weights, AMAT was first to unveil its quarterly numbers and the results were mixed. Though firm beat the street by one cent in posting a Q4 gain of $0.09, it guided Q103 estimates sharply lower. Company sees Q1 revenues 20% below Q4 numbers, or at about $1.16 bln. Also expects to incur a small loss in Q1, which includes charge for headcount reduction-- but still expects operational profitability. Street had been looking for sales of $1.39 bln and earnings of $0.07 cents. Most telling, company doesn't see very difficult environment improving anytime soon. Soft report out of Applied Materials is apt to weigh on influential Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX) index, and thus entire sector off the open on Thursday... Traders also likely to be a little gun shy about going long ahead of Dell's report. News out of Dell expected to be decent, with a few firms on street hinting that they see Dell exceeding consensus estimates and possibly even guiding higher. Share gains, efficient model and slight pick up in demand seen as reasons for optimism. If Dell does suggest a turn is at hand in the depressed PC business, that could be the catalyst bulls need to take recovery rally to new heights. However, if Dell disappoints as Applied Materials has, then the focus will be on the fact that earnings remain depressed and that the rebound is still in the distance. Given the sector's/market's recent gains, and the ongoing concerns over the economy (which could be stoked by Thursday mornings Retail Sales data - see Economic Calendar), the potential for a quick and sharp decline could easily be realized as bulls go back on strike. Robert Walberg

To: Gottfried who wrote (6874)	11/14/2002 8:02:21 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95639

Hi G, I think it is proof positive that AMAT's market share growth has/is significant. For what can only be called one of the most vicious troughs in this cyclical industry,backlogs at this level show market share growth in almost all sectors AND the acquisitions made in the past have also yielded long term new areas of continued revenue and reinvestment. Amat is to be congratulated in managing their business conservatively and also adding to it in the past very wisely. The record growth of backlogs is a very good complement to their vision and choice of past acquisitions. Note that the decline in billings that occurred in early 99 diverged from a stock price uptrend that never looked back. home.attbi.com To the degree that we see shorts frustrated with this news not dropping the price of our favorite stocks,we will have proof that to some degree this phenomenon of price leading the recovery is once again repeating itself. A stock's price afterall is the net result of supply and demand. If Amat's price increases in the face of moderately declining backlogs - it will be from the money spent buying it at reduced prices expecting an imminennt recovery. This repeat would be simply a cyclical recovery again and not the end of the world like in 29-32 or Japan. A conservative persons viewpoint would better bet on continued IC growth(albeit at a reduced growth rate). I suspect we'll see money flows on the fundamentally unsubstantiated side - chasing the bid side more than pressure on the ask side. It will amaze the doubtors - it is all supply and demand. JMHO Bob