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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Whirlwind who wrote (16240)	11/13/2002 11:56:14 PM
From: ubetcha	Respond to of 81961

Alan, Absolutely! Now they can get more for their leased gold, and all will be good with the world again. Did I not say that all would return to normal today? Back to square I with the gold price, and awaiting a further move down. Wait till next year! We will certainly try again! Now we can get back to the really important stuff! Will there be a War in Iraq? Saddam buckled under so it appears. Me thinks he may have some wiley coyote in him. More lives that a cat, and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, not to mention being able to shoot into the air without the bullets returning to earth! Terry

To: Alan Whirlwind who wrote (16240)	11/19/2002 3:53:59 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81961

Al, someone sent me this comment by Richard Russell which is a few days old now but relevant nonetheless. BTW, I'm feeling much better. ----- Silently, quietly -- there's a fierce battle going on to control the price of gold. I wrote yesterday about the large contingent which does NOT, for whatever reason, want gold to go higher. These are certain hedged mines, some gold accumulators, and obviously all gold shorts. The shape of this huge battle can be seen in the so-called Commitment of Traders. For the latest week, the Commercials (gold banks, some mines, large brokers) decreased their long gold contracts from 49 thousand to 43 thousand. That's a drop of 6 thousand long contracts. But the Commercials also increased their shorts from 106 thousand to 122 thousand, an increase of 16 thousand shorts. In other words, the Commercials are shorting the hell out of gold. Clearly, the Commercials are attempting to manage (or some call it "manipulate") the price of gold. Aligned against the Commercials are the large traders or large speculators. For the latest week this group increased its long position from 38 thousand contracts to 57 thousand contracts. At the same time they increased their shorts slightly from 18 thousand contracts to 20 thousand contracts. Which group will win? The powerful Commercials tend to win, but this is a bull market in gold and the Commercials now have the problem of trying to manipulate a bull market. They may be able to do it on a temporary basis, but in the end the primary trend will have its way. In fact, the longer a primary bull market is held back, the more powerful is the ultimate advance. Bull markets, like bear markets, ultimately must express themselves. It's obvious that the Commercials do not want gold above 320, and it's even more obvious that they do not want gold above 325. So the battle lines are drawn and the gold war is on. This is the problem for those who are speculating in gold vs. those who patiently hold gold on the basis of long-term fundamentals. And there is an advantage in holding physical gold over gold futures or even gold shares. When you hold physical gold (coins) you don't really give a damn what the short-term trend of gold is. You're holding real money, and the history of gold is that it has outlived every paper currency that has ever been invented. You just sit with your physical gold and wait. But holding gold futures or gold options can be scary because you are heavily margined and you're fighting time. Holding gold shares fully paid for can be scary if a temporary drop of 15% or even 25% causes you to lose sleep. But holding gold shares in a gold bull market can be very rewarding, and it can be well worth the fight. Can the Commercials be defeated? Occasionally, they can. But the odds usually favor the Commercials. Nevertheless, the current situation is fascinating in that the Commercials have taken such a strong position against the primary trend of gold. On occasions when the Commercials have been defeated by a stronger market force, the move can be spectacular. In other words, if gold can climb above 325 and more importantly above 330 we could see a panic up-move as the Commercials are forced to cover. The battle is on. For the gold bulls, the important thing is NOT TO BE LEVERAGED. If you hold your gold coins or gold shares for cash, you can't be knocked out of the picture, regardless of manipulation by the Commercials. And that is the crux of the situation. The primary trend of gold is bullish. The secondary trend of gold can at any time be bullish or bearish. Of course, the ultimate question is -- why are certain interests so intent on holding back the price of gold? Some day the whole ugly story will be told. In the meantime, all I can do is try to put the story together to the best of my ability and with whatever market evidence I have at hand.