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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (6881)	11/14/2002 9:28:58 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95640

Hi Bob. My point about the tax treatment was not that it indicates that business was soft. (The rate reduction was due primarily to additional Foreign Sales Corporation income tax benefits.) The point was that it was distorting Q4 results. Net margins were reported as 10.2% when they really were 9.2%. Without the one-time tax saving they would have been 8.2%. More worrisome is their increase in A/R. It appears that they have gone from 55 days sales outstanding a year ago to 65 days. They may be pushing product out to help this years numbers and "take a bath" next quarter. As a permabull you obviously have a more sanguine outlook than I do. However at a long term growth rate in the mid teens AMAT remains overpriced. In the long run companies trade on fundamentals. In the short run who knows where the price will go.