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To: H James Morris who wrote (150090)	11/14/2002 7:30:59 PM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 164684

Wit Sound View analyst Shawn Milne of San Francisco has kept a record of daily order totals since 2000, give or take a few days here and there. Oh wow. (I have hourly order totals). At New York-based Bear Stearns, analyst Jeff Fieler recorded a "delight ratio per day" last year to track its correlation to revenue growth. He found none. He's looking too hard. Simply use the mix of sales to project current sales while allowing for most of the growth in the newer used-items segment and you get a pretty good idea where the revenue will land. The biggest problem was that last year the closing stretch was much better than the year before so early projections were a bit off, but come Dec 25 the D-O-M gives you a pretty accurate figure where things will land a full month ahead of the quarterly figures release. In fact the first year we were within 50mill of actual revenues come Dec 25, if I remember correctly. The second year was not that different.