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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (59538)	11/14/2002 9:27:01 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I don't have anything much to add Elliot-wise here, but I will recap a lengthy conversation with a friend of mine today: 1. Bear market rallies are asymmetrical - they move up very quickly, and give ground grudgingly. 2. There is no reason to be early on short entries. There will be plenty of time after it starts to roll to get short, and the risks are against the short-seller. Be patient. If you're ten days late, you might miss out on a few percent. But if you're ten days early, you could lose ten percent or more. 3. As long as we continue to produce 5%-type moves in NDX, it demonstrates a clear danger to those who would short it. When this thing has wrung out all the money it intends to wring out of people, it will stop producing these wild upside days. 4. PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT: Bear market rallies frequently have little backing and filling! Recall last October - we all kept looking for a 38% retracement that never came. That rally produced little form except for stair-step moves of a wave up followed by a flat corrective wave to retest the breakout. Repeated four or five times if memory serves me correctly. So, I'm reminding myself and those on this thread that, despite the high probability that prices will be lower than this 6-12 months out, this is no time to be exposed to the short side. I've had a few long-term short entries tick off in old favorites, so I'm going to try to keep them hedged until we break a clear support level. BC

To: Shack who wrote (59538)	11/14/2002 9:41:45 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Shack -- I'm also curious as to what you see coming tomorrow/next week. Seems to me we either have to dive from the open or we're off to new highs in tech, at least. Admittedly, there's no reason for the Naz to go up after Dell. . . but nor was there today. So. . . what's your alternate here? the freep

To: Shack who wrote (59538)	11/14/2002 11:01:17 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

An 'A' triangle is a longshot call, as you know. Much more likely imo that it is either a 'B', making us entering now a new leg up -- a 'C' to go with the first explosion off the lows, or, a '4', making us now in a 5 -- a new high, not so high as the fist alternative above. The latter is interesting... if it is a '4' triangle, and they do like to appear now and then in that position, then this '5' will feed into the great debate: is this 5 sequence, which began at the Oct lows, the 'A' of a correction that will last 4 or 5 more months, or the 'C' of a big flat that we began off the July lows. We talked about these two choices the last time I posted here. Then we called them scenario #3 and scenario #4. In general, and wthdik being now but a lowly worker, I see too much hard thinking on the thread. The down we had for a few days starting last week was not pretty -- ever. It is unlikely that such choppy crap is ever the start of something good for bears. What about MMM? I like its chances of making a new ATH as part of this market swing. What about MSFT? What are the chances that it heads down from here. Not good at all methinks. MSFT will most likely want a new high -- fill the gap and move on is what it is doing. Yes, we have two prior gaps in that trend. I think MSFT makes a nice short on a new high. What about MBI (MBIA Inc). Ugly. Still, I'll bet this down is a 'b' only, with an upswing yet due. BTW, I always like to check the related ticker, MBIA (Merchants Bancorp). Now there is an ugly chart as well. That I fear -g, is in fresh down. There will be rallies to short there until it prints $18's. And CSCO. Beautiful move off the lows. I like being right, but I also like beauty -- that is a very nice move. Today, it gaps over the DT line out of Jan this year; a line that's been touched a couple of times. Very nice. It's a weekly that should put a little fear in the shorts. The technical highlight of the day though is QCOM -- hands down. What a breakout. Up tomorrow early for a working breakfast. Sometime thereafter, while in a meeting that will last all morning, I have to get on the phone and reschedule a meeting I called for Monday, one that involves a number of people, some from other companies. This is the sort of juggling, between these two things, that I do not enjoy having to do. Meetings suck. The higher one goes in corporate life, the more time one spends in meetings. Why, I am convinced that some enterprises go broke having bright and senior people spend too much time in meetings. I would like to development a trading strategy whereby we fade companies that we know are in love with meetings. -g It's the sort of L-T, fundamental play that would never appeal to this board, but I think it is sound. -bg/ng I know I don't post much these days, and little of that is worth reading, so I figure I can say just about anything without getting the boot. So, here goes... I think this board is too busy. Really, I think I mean that this board spends too much time talking about things that have nothing to do with trading. I have a little distance now, forced by only reading you in batches, but I skip way too many posts; posts that say hardly anything that can help me trade. Just aho from the weeds. I hope everyone is well and making some money. My son is 16 in January and he's is taxing my last nerve. He's a wonderful man, that I know, but waiting for the boy in him to figure that out is making me old. -bg Cheers, Allan