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To: Perspective who wrote (59550)11/15/2002 12:10:53 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Good stuff. You're wasting your talent in that job of yours Bob.

Asymmetry in the risk profile eh? That sounds painful. -bg

There's a chance I will be going to California in the new year. I thought I'd head up your way; try to talk you into something that you'd actually find challenging for that big brain of yours. -g/ng How cold does it get there in February?



To: Perspective who wrote (59550)11/15/2002 7:33:04 AM
From: stomper  Respond to of 209892
 
Yep, most of the big damage has happened in a few weeks with intervening periods of bear misery (JXM chart):

stockcharts.com[r,a]dhcaynay[d20000101,20021115][pb50!b200][iub14!la12,26,9][J8227947,Y]&listNum=1



To: Perspective who wrote (59550)11/15/2002 8:46:01 AM
From: bcrafty  Respond to of 209892
 
bobcor, thanks for clarifying you hold timeframes
and the period that you feel is risky.

I thank you for the longer term perspective that you bring to a board of many short term traders, and I always read them with interest. Your recent post calling for not being exposed to the short side for the next 5-20 trading sessions differs from your earlier post two weeks ago where you felt that there was a very high probability of a 38% retracement that you were playing for, as you felt the odds favored this pullback. Although some pointed out at that time that last year's rally had no such retracement, many here agreed with your position and noted the many gaps below. I was wondering if there is there a particular reason that you have changed your mind since then that would have you not exposed to the short side.

Message 18166846

At that time you also mentioned issues you were interested in shorting as they were at resistance: ccu, pg, hdi, ibm, ifin, mbi, mdc, rhi, ryl, wmt, altr, isil, lltc, mchp, molx, mxim, nvls, and I was interested if you ended up shorting any of these. I am very interested in entering some longer term trades, but before I can do so there has to be a proper short term setup to provide a proper entry. I would very much appreciate it, and I'm sure the rest of the board would, if you could post to us would you see in the charts at the time you enter your new position that would make you enter it at that time as opposed to some other time. Frequently the way I look at trading is that choosing which issue to trade is 25% of the work, but choosing when to enter your position is the other 75%.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts, and I understand that you are not looking at any particular indicators now, but perhaps you could also tell us which indicator readings you would you be looking at in the future to give you less pause about being short. We would all like to be on the right side at the right time.