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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (57322)	11/15/2002 11:33:49 AM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 281500

Message 18238030

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (57322)	11/15/2002 8:20:22 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Karen Lawrence; Re: "To some degree, they achieved that [significant damage to the US economy] with 9/11. The loss of so many innocent lives and continued turmoil in the market has been a result of that." The stock market bubble had zero to do with Al Qaeda. Here's a stock chart that shows that prices started dropping well before 9/11, and that, in fact, 9/11 was an insignificant event: finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=c&t=5y&l=on&z=b&q=l The market is a war between greed and fear, and from about 1985 through the present day, greed has had the upper hand. When they are in balance, the market will again be fairly valued, but that will be at a price considerably below (maybe 1/2 to 2/3) the current valuation. All this impacts on our foreign relations because our stock market bubble has been responsible for the high value of the US dollar. Our trade deficit has been partly financed by foreign investors buying our over priced stocks. My guess is that we're in for a drop in the dollar until the trade deficit goes away. This has a bunch of consequences: (1) It makes it harder for our government to use cash to influence foreign relations. (2) Since oil is priced in dollars, it makes it easier (and more likely) for OPEC to raise prices. (3) For some ridiculous reason, some people see the stability and strength of a nation as being reflected in the stability and strength of its currency. -- Carl@pretendsthisisnotthreadbloat.fool.com