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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (28933)	11/15/2002 12:24:30 PM
From: Cooters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197208

I am pretty sure that Q's MSM6300 would be significantly more expensive than a GSM/GPRS chipset from TI. Generally, I think TI gets less than $15 for its chipsets.....in contrast to the $25 or so that Qualcomm receives. Qualcomm might have to sell the chipset below cost to make it competitive with TI's GSM/GPRS offerings. Would the reduction in the total BOM via ZIF come into play here? Cooters

To: slacker711 who wrote (28933)	11/15/2002 12:47:10 PM
From: foundation	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197208

I'm weary of what I perceive as irrational extrapolation of ASIC prices on handset demand. Let's speculate that TI gets $15 for a GSMGPRS ASIC - which may be low, as I've read that they're meaningfully more than for GSM. And that a market-segmented 1xGSMGPRS might run $25. We're talking $10 higher BOM - everything else being equal. I think that the % of the global population who would be driven to a default decision over $10,15, even $20 is minimal. That said, the prospective market is not huge - though why only dominated by premium handsets and subscribers? You can certainly add the China market - and by extension all of Asia - and for roaming prospects in South America. It's similar in my mind to camera integration - which will not be limited to the high end for long. How much does it cost to add a camera to a handset? $5 to $10, depending on quality, pixels...

To: slacker711 who wrote (28933)	11/15/2002 2:47:21 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197208

SI-#3-MSM6300 repy#1- !11-15-02) Thanks to all for the warm welcome, and I didn’t me to slight Mighty L (just a senior moment) as his contributions have been mighty fine over the years as have J Goren’s and gveaurichie. Reply to slacker- (and all) “I am pretty sure that Q's MSM6300 would be significantly more expensive than a GSM/GPRS chipset from TI. Generally, I think TI gets less than $15 for its chipsets.....in contrast to the $25 or so that Qualcomm receives. Qualcomm might have to sell the chipset below cost to make it competitive with TI's GSM/GPRS offerings.” “Most of the world is pretty well served by a tri-band GSM handset for roaming. Telefonica and Vodafone are probably the prime European operators looking at this chipset, but I dont think they would be willing to subsidize every handset just to take advantage of international roaming. This is a pretty small part of the overall market and is probably dominated by those who can afford to buy high-end handsets (which are generally less subsidized). “ My reply- The MSM6300 could well be more expensive than the GSM/GPRS chipset from TI, however Qualcomm has already incurred the R&D expense and I’m sure they could find a way to amortize that cost over other offerings in such a manner as to price it competitively. As Ben pointed out, I don’t think $10 to $20 bucks either way is going to be a major sticking point. And, as Cooters questioned, “would the reduction in the BOM come into play here?”. It is my understanding that all MSMXXX chipsets incorporate radioOneTM architecture with a reduced BOM. Qualcomm has repeatedly stated that they will be able to supply entry level chips to their vendors so that the handsets can be priced at $70 or less (segmentation). Perhaps a scaled down version (without all the bells and whistles) of the MSM6300 could be developed fairly easily or perhaps nothing has to be done at all except disable those functions on the chip with software (Engineer, Mighty, we need your help here)? Regarding the size of the market.- As I recall, an article yesterday was posted confirming that VOD was considering using Qualcomm’s chipsets and many comments from VOD over the past year or so referenced the need for a “world phone” that could be used on VZ in the U.S. and their GSM networks is Europe. And, we’ve mentioned Telefonica, China Unicom, and at least one Australian carrier. And, as Tom pointed out the MSM6300 “Reinforces the Unicom guy's comment that this chip "puts the wings on the dragon". That adds up to a pretty sizable market. A few more random comments from prior email discussions- I totally agree. The level and intensity of FUD over the last several weeks has been unbelievable, and perhaps a sign of bitter desperation on the part of the GSM community as they are being backed into the corner on every front (technology failures, lack of compelling product advances to drive the upgrade market, carrier financial problems, WCDMA royalty issue, etc). I also believe it is a "very big deal" as now Qualcomm, for the first time has a product they can sell into the mainstream market (MSM6300). I don't see how it can be blocked by the regulators as it doesn't require any changes to their mandated GSM networks. And, from reading some of the recent posts regarding Texas Instruments, it doesn't appear they are close to having a similar dual-mode chip solution. TI did acquire a small CDMA company (10 people, I believe) composed of former Qualcomm employees a few years back. Qualcomm with its 6500 people, many engineers and many with RF skills which are in short supply, has not helped the competition either by laying off personnel during the telecom depression. They could have cut costs by deferring R&D and increase earnings, but wisely chose to accelerate development of their many new products. And, no doubt NOK and the rest will continue their tactics to block any Qualcomm advances. I agree after reading Ben's, and others, comments regarding the GSM1X trial . I guess my point is that GSM1X and WCDMA deployments are not as important at the moment. With the Dual-mode MSM6300 (GSM/GPRS- CDMA2000 1x) Qualcomm NOW has the World as its market. Qualcomm is no longer limited to CDMA, GSM1X, and WCDMA for future growth. As I believe we agree, handsets with the MSM6300 can access 2G GSM networks even before they are upgraded to GSM1X. And, Qualcomm is itching to break into GSM Euroland thu VOD or whoever as pay back for being shut out (stiffed) so ruthlessly by the GSM community over the years. Qualcomm will "pull out all stops" to price the MSM6300 (or a scaled down version) so as it can enable its handset vendors compete with anything the GSM community has to offer. Dr. I J can then relax, retire, and enjoy his richly deserved "golden years. Jim