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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H James Morris who wrote (9422)	11/15/2002 3:00:13 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

The Property Master Sam Zell is one of America's biggest landlords. So why isn't he worried? fortune.com <<...Above all, Sam Zell is an optimist. He funded the creation of a center studying risk taking and entrepreneurship at Northwestern University and has written on the subject too: "The true entrepreneur doesn't see risk--he sees solutions. And has unending self-confidence."...>>

To: H James Morris who wrote (9422)	11/15/2002 3:36:02 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

got an opinion on wheat and grains generally so here goes, but not worth much to anyone back in 1995-96, I did some dabbling amidst learning strange market really, esp when you include the meats but I will stick with wheats here alone we had a nasty drought in the Midwest and the Central Plains just when we didnt want one (for insurance firm reasons) so we had a wheat shortage (as well as corn and soybean) the immediate pain was with the nearby months but as you read, it has extended to the December month contract I liked "internets dressed up in overalls" -- cute since almost every nation on earth has a big wheat agriculture business, you enter the competitive aspects quickly Canadian wheat will come to the rescue sometimes when US wheat suffers in production Argentinian wheat also is plentiful but do they have enough to export? most planning is done so that domestic needs are met the USA deals with exporting a lot of our production China is often a big buyer they also are the biggest complainers about mold so will foreign surplus is the big question it sounds like that surplus is not enough to dent the shortage then come the seasons a tough spring USA crop can be offset by a bigger planting crop in Canada later in the growing season a tough total USA crop can be offset by bigger plantings in South America, whose summer is our winter the point is that a US-felt shortage can be alleviated quickly by big producers, esp the offsetting SoAmericans now a key question: did Argentina Bank Implosion affect their farming? I cannot see how not this finance factor impedes production, esp reactive overproduction to alleviate our shortage but the seasons are magical next spring is a totally new game most shortages are overcome by the next year, early on the price incentive often yields a glut in the next year planning on a national level is nearly nonexistent the Dept of Agriculture might argue, citing their guidance but gimme a break, farmers will chase the higher prices they often do, and they dont coordinate very much on decisions the hullabaloo will be gone by May plenty of money will be lost in the grain pits from speculators in midwinter fwiw / jim

To: H James Morris who wrote (9422)	11/15/2002 9:37:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 89467

I enjoyed Jim's answer and he is correct that crop commodities are easily swung from shortage to glut from year to year. As I keep explaining to those who depend upon me for money, while I'm long Soybean Oil Puts and it keeps going up in defiance of my instructions. <g> Though I did make decent money on the bean oil calls a few weeks ago and they loved me then. Soybean oil would be in glut if it weren't for the stupid Rapeseed Oil crop flubbing up. But commodities are up and you can't grow copper and platinum the way you can wheat. Or even cattle and lean hogs. It goes back to what I've been saying for years: the 90s were the time to buy fluff. But real stuff is what's going up in the naughts. BTW, don't do any tax spreads with real cattle vs. the futures. The futures always live and the live cattle you own often seem to die of something weird. <ng>