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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (57358)	11/15/2002 6:52:46 PM
From: frankw1900	Respond to of 281500

the alignment against the United States will be solidified for generations, I think. And it would be a terrible catastrophe for that to happen. The wrath incurred will never abate. IMO The hard feelings against the US are manufactured by those countries governments through intellectaul proxies who don't have any other outlet for their dissatisfactions. Lets bear that in mind before we go forward. Now, lets suppose the US starts to invade Iraq and Hussein shoots some missiles at Israel. What might Israel do? It could shoot back, I suppose. Given Israeli record, it's likely to shoot military targets - most likely in part of Iraq nearest Israel. Will it do more? Probably not. It has closer tactical and strategic interests - Hezbollah's thousands of rockets massed on Israel's northern border and the enemies in occupied territories aligned with them. It's possible if US attacks Iraq, Hezbollah will attack Israel. If this happens it's extremely likely that Israel will destroy the Hezbollah forces, destroy their allies in the territories, expel Arafat and his cronies and start over with the palestinians. It's entirely possible the Israelis will say to the palestinins (I would), "D'ya wanna talk or shoot. We'd prefer to talk." Leaving aside the nutbars, (who are about 10 -20% of both populations) now that Arafat's criminal terrorists aren't there to bully and murder folk, the palestinians will want to talk. This is absolutely the greatest fear of the repressive regimes in the area (but not that of their citizens - they're concerned with P&I conflict). It's quite possible P's and I's could come to a sensible arrangement - they have more in common with each other than they have with neighbouring states. (The question comes up. Who would the israelis talk to if Arafat's not there? A good part of the palestinian authority assembly doesn't like Arafat or his cabinet and would be happy to see them gone. So call an election and vote in some new leadership - get the canadians and turks or somebody like them with reasonably clean hands to help set up and run the elections. Got spokespeople then). Feelings certainly would run high in the area for a while but could not be sustained on the basis of the Israel-Palestinian conflict. (There might also be a side benefit. The Israelis might also chase the Syrians out of Lebanon which is also a country desperately wanting to be modern). If the US does a proper job of going into Iraq and proper job of administering afterward, then anti-US feelings might not be that high. The repressive regimes in the area are getting pretty close exhausting the anti-US thing as a distraction for their citizens from the injustices within. Many folk in the area would think, "Finally! The US isn't just talking about democracy and all that stuff just for themselves." That's very important because its's the source of much of the anti-US expression the rulers there encourage. I think it's very important to remember the personal aspirations of the people living in the area - they want to live prosperous lives free of repression and corruption and a reasonable future for their children. They can't have those things with most of the rulers they have.