Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (28984)	11/16/2002 10:47:27 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197028

Clark-SI-CDMA Replacement Rate analysis (11-16-02) Clark, thanks for your views on handset replacement rates. Mr. Keitel discusses this in detail during the London day presentations. I have recapped two of his charts below. BTW the excellent five hour presentation with synchronized slides is on the Qualcomm site along with separate pdf file slides for each presenter. What I find “interesting” is how CONSERVATIVE their forecast is for 2003. “Conservative” was stressed very often when referring to 2003 guidance. In chart #4, replacements (as a % of prior year subs) were 54% and 49% for 2001 and 2002, respectively. Yet, 2003 is forecast at only 43%. In chart #5, he shows replacement rates by geographical region with the U.S. market declining from 62% (2001) and 57% (2002) to 50% in 2003. That chart also breaks out the replacement forecast for 2003 between churn (62%) and upgrade (32%). I believe this to be very conservative as I believe there are very compelling reasons for both the churn and replacement market to be higher in 2003 percentage wise. The newer CDMA handsets with camera attached phones and higher data rates for web services should be hitting the U.S. market full swing in 2003. I would expect the churn to be higher also as the word gets out regarding the differentiation of handset offerings and data services between CDMA and GSM carriers should result in more crossovers of GSM subs to CDMA carriers. I did a quick and dirty CDMA handset forecast for 2003 with a breakout by about 5 different categories (I believe) which I emailed to TB sometime back. I’m usually too optimistic in my projections, but I’ll try to find it and post it FWIW. I attempted to place the chart tables on this post but using “fixed font ?” I can get the tables lined up properly, but the text goes out a mile. W/O “fixed font”, the text is ok, but the tables are out of sync. I’ll post the text here and the charts in a following post Thanks- Jim