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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (21967)	11/16/2002 11:53:39 AM
From: Fitz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Interesting article, worth a look........ 16 Nov 2002, 10:09 AM EST Msg. Gold, Commodities, Midas du Metropole Topic du Jour November 15 - Gold $320.30 up $2.70 - Silver $4.57 up two cents Gold Comes Right Back It would appear that The Gold Cartel is in serious trouble. For gold to even gain $2.70 so soon after the trashing it took on Wednesday is most remarkable – nothing sensational, but a rare event. As it was, Goldman Sachs took on all comers at $321, basis the December contract, to keep gold within the $2 rule range. Had this veteran cabal member not been there to hold the fort for the rest of the cartel, my sources tell me gold would have closed at least $4 higher. The open interest liquidated 2,000+ contracts on Thursday, but the bulk of what was put on Tuesday remains intact. That would indicate strong hand buyers. Since The Gold Cartel has been the strong hand for 7 years, the norm would be for the longs to exit first (liquidate their positions). However, times are a changin’. Maybe the tide too? If gold rises another $2 on Monday or Tuesday from today’s close, it is the shorts that may be forced to run for the hills first, not the longs. That would STUN veteran gold traders. The Commitment Trader Report will be construed bearishly by most in the gold world, as the commercials went net short another 22,000 contracts as of last Tuesday (many of those shorts are the cabal). They are net short around 78,500 contracts. The large specs added a net of 17,000 more longs. My view of break down of traders is a contrarian one, as I construe this spec build up to be bullish at this point in time. The explosive gold move to come is going to occur with the commercials massively short. That is a 100% certainty in my book. We will have what is called a commercial signal failure. Almost all of the great commodity moves of all time occur with these failures. In gold’s case, it will also be a Gold Cartel failure. Commodity analyst/trader Greg Pickup makes a great point. Man Financial has $20 billion on account for trading. Most of that money belongs to their funds. Years ago $20 billion invested in commodity funds represented the entire industry. Man F and other firms receive this money from SUCCESSFUL fund managers, the large specs. You don’t stay around too long in that field if you lose money for clients. That is why it does not phase me to have the specs mega long. I expect The Gold Cartel to get shorter, and shorter and shorter and THEN BLOW UP!!!! Yes, the commercials have buried the large gold specs over the years. What can you expect in a rigged casiono? That is why the key to gold is the demise of The Gold Cartel. It might help to also keep in mind that the run-up early this year occurred with the commercials very short. The gold fundamentals remain explosive. A bullion dealer tells me there are large physical buy orders below $319 that ought to support the market when and if the cabal attacks. It is only a matter of time before the cumulative effect of the very positive gold fundamentals forces The Gold Cartel to surrender to the gold longs. Today’s surprising action suggests that day is not too far off. As oft mentioned in this column, the cabal cycle of beating gold lower continues to decrease. What lasted years, then many months, then a few months, then one month, then weeks, might only last days or one week now. The first few trading sessions next week should give us a clue as to whether a commercial signal failure is not far off.

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (21967)	11/16/2002 12:43:16 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

<Its and extension of the credit bubble and will end badly> Yes it will. People cannot borrow enough in their quest of keeping up with the Joneses. Tom