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To: orkrious who wrote (205279)11/16/2002 4:25:43 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
stop kidding yourself. you're living in denial of the power of clowns. buy some NT and ride the yr-end road to riches.. -vbfg- LOL



To: orkrious who wrote (205279)11/17/2002 1:22:02 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
<<< lot more skepticism about last year's rally >>>

The big change is that since market fell in July people did not send money to mutual funds during rallies and withdrew money during market falls. There is a big negative mental change towards stocks. As I read somewhere MuFu holders are out of profits. They were willing to gamble with house money, but they want to preserve their own cash. Only index funds are still getting money, which is most likely 401K on autopilot, but the more people open their quarterly statements the more of them call to switch from risky stocks to "safe" bonds.

Also last year there were big pension funds rebalancing towards stocks. The reason was that they had very high assumption for pension returns, so they needed to get into some higher profit stuff (stocks). Now they are lowering assumption for pension returns, so they may in fact sell stocks in their next rebalancing.
BWDIK

EDIT: The big risk to bearish scenario is that billions of $$$ from September-October cash out refinancings are about to be dispensed. See #reply-18237799