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Strategies & Market Trends : Harmonic Trading with The Phoenix -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the-phoenix who wrote (55)	11/16/2002 5:20:28 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 941

Good lord, that's a big drop between December and February that you are charting. Here's some fundamental items to support your view: news.moneycentral.msn.com

To: the-phoenix who wrote (55)	11/16/2002 5:40:54 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 941

Interesting November 24 is 34 days from the USD top on Oct 21. It makes some sense for a turn by Nov. 25

To: the-phoenix who wrote (55)	11/18/2002 12:08:24 PM
From: the-phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 941

So far so good on this scenario. Went short at 914 this morning at the .786 retracement and mid-tine of the pitchfork...

To: the-phoenix who wrote (55)	11/18/2002 8:23:51 PM
From: the-phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 941

More Fun with Butterflies, theories, projections, conjecture: Following up on this scenario: share.esignal.com Recall I was looking for SPX to roll over this morning at about 914 at the Andrew's Pitchfork mid-tine and the .786 retracement of the post Nov. 6th selloff. Then start a pullback towards the 888-890 area where there is some support. Currently, this is how I see this leg possibly playing out: share.esignal.com Assuming some sort of bounce off SPX 900 tomorrow morning, we could retrace back to the 905-910 area, prior to a drop to that 890 area. If this happens, it strengthens the case for a bounce at 888-890 as a bullish butterfly in the 15 minute chart would complete right in that same zone as the .618 retrace of last week's rally and the lower tine of the pitchfork. This area would likely be reached by late tomorrow or by Wednesday morning. Assuming we do reverse there, I would expect the next move from there to be up to new highs by early next week. If instead we continue lower, then a likely downside target would be the 825-830 area. The way I am trading this is to hold a stop on my current short above this afternoon's high in the 910 area, with the potential to add new shorts in the 905-910 area tomorrow. I will take profits in the 890 area if reached, then stand aside to re-assess what the next move is likely to be. I have a minimum profit on this trade of 2 points, and a maximum target of about 25 points. Phoenix

To: the-phoenix who wrote (55)	11/26/2002 4:59:25 PM
From: the-phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 941

Forecast vs Actual: Revisiting the SPX Scenario that I posted here ten days ago, that was looking ahead to the November 25 timeframe. Here was the chart that I posted then: share.esignal.com Here is how it actually played out: share.esignal.com While a Bearish Butterfly did complete roughly at the prices and in the timeframe that I had anticipated, the CD leg turned out to be less powerful than I thought it might. It seems that the Andrews Pitchfork that was part of the key to this pattern gave more resistance at the mid-tine than I had expected. At this point, SPX is retesting that lower tine of the fork and has nearly reached the .618 retracement of the CD leg, as well as filling the gap from last Thursday. Bounce time? Phoenix