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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (57511)	11/19/2002 1:40:34 AM
From: Dayuhan	Respond to of 281500

There will need to be instituitions that set the rules and enforce them effectively. There does need to be a way to negotiate Kyoto-like agreements without the UN baggage But how, short of imperial dictation, are institutions going to set and enforce rules without the UN baggage or something very similar? Government cannot be both simple and representative; the complexity of representative government increases with the size and diversity of the group that is to be governed. Here we are talking about a very large and diverse group indeed. What model do we have for acceptable government, accepted by the governed, that does not come with a great deal of baggage. Nothing interesting happens at dynamic equilibrium, phase transitions only happen when the system is unstable. However, you need structure as well. Of course. But if the structure is imposed, and is not acceptable to and accepted by the vast majority of those governed, the structure will generate instability, often violent instability. I see building a transformed IMF, WorldBank, WTO and UN that are effective (clearly expressed principles based on freedom to choose in government and economic life). I don’t think this will be possible until there is some sort of resolution, or at least movement toward resolution, of north/south issues. Those issues, despite having been absurdly distorted by 3rd world demagogues and academics of the postcolonial school, are very real, very much resistant to quick fixes, and very much an obstacle to peace. In any world government the poor countries will see the rich countries trying to lean on them and hold them down and the rich countries will see the poor countries trying to gang up and steal what they’ve got. The fears on both sides have been exaggerated, but both are also based on real problems and obstacles. I think it is going to be the Americans leading (carrot and stick) not simply participating. They have the military to stare down people when needed. They also have the best model of entrepreneurism to demonstrate. Unfortunately, America’s leadership position has been greatly eroded by the perception, which the current administration has done little to dispel, that America seeks not equitable world government, but actual world hegemony. Whether we like it or not, Europe and the developed nations in Asia have an important leadership role to play here, being members of the “rich club” that are free from the taint carried by the potential imperial power.