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To: stockman_scott who wrote (9808)	11/17/2002 3:56:28 PM
From: Sig	Respond to of 13815

Re 4 year cycle; Very important, part of the reason for my present optimism. We are near or at the bottom. I have been in equities for 1/2 a century now. That cycle worked for trading in the '60's Another consideration is the Stein-Morse paradox once discussed in the Scientific American Which would say with almost 100% certainty that if a jockey is riding 70 % winners when his lifetime average is 25% that he is due for a losing streak. Applied to stocks, what goes up too fast will come down. ( covers the whole bubble, in one way) And also the markets have gone down like a lead zeppellin, batting zero, and that will not last. Especially good when used with IPO's (G) These concepts are not easy to apply in daily activity, but can be used to increase confidence, provide some timing basis or reason for going long . The time has come. .Sig