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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (9529)	11/17/2002 10:41:07 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

economist ignore the dynamics of change, e.g. USdollar as the dollar declines, many changes will occur almost all of them are very bad economists dont address them at all capital will exit US Stocks capital will exit US Bonds, offsetting the move out of stocks and into Bonds to some extent, then later resulting in a net exit to Bonds import prices will rise corporate supply costs will rise, hurting profits treasury rates will rise on long end TENS THIRTYS mortgage rates will rise the REFI phenomenon will end, hurting consumer spending mortgage defaults will escalate, along with job layoffs consumer spending will fall off the cliff the economy will slide into recession, even as interest rates rise the corporate SWAP phenomenon backfires, crippling profits stocks take a major dive down down down resulting in still more dollar devaluation then the Vicious Circle feeds back into a new cycle eventually the dollar decline will become out of control A USDOLLAR FREEFALL IS COMING Sinclair believes by June 2004 inevitable I dont see how Elliott Wave Intl maintains that both the dollar and gold will decline they are all fuched up with their gold forecasts dollar resumes decline, leg #2 gold breaks out above #330 I anticipate at least 4 separate 10% dollar declines clown economists believe after this recent 10% devaluation, that all would stabilize, as trade gaps would shrink they expanded, exactly as I predicted because foreign economies weakened further and because US produces little, and what they do produce has tons of foreign (Asian) component parts EACH DOLLAR 10% DECLINE DICTATES THE NEXT !!! / jim