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To: sea_biscuit who wrote (25439)	11/18/2002 11:06:42 PM
From: Andy M.	Respond to of 25814

Dipy, I agree that Jock's point about you being a frustrated tech guy is lame. But there's another category of tech investor: the semi-informed, semi-skeptical, semi-lucky outsiders who made a lot of money on Tech. Sure there was too much hype, but real companies made real profits. I'm still up 115% on shares of ORCL I bought in 1997, and I dumped plenty in 2000. You were right that the market got way overvalued but there's no need to rewrite history, as if the growth in high-tech companies over the last ten years is just a mirage. The prospects for future growth have flattened or declined, so the stocks go down. They went up when growth was accelerating. What else do you expect from the market? Andy

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (25439)	11/19/2002 9:10:01 AM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Respond to of 25814

Mr. Dipy: That is a great message. And I am afraid that both Jock and I would have qualified as a member of group 3 for a period of time during which we were lucky to be part of that group. Although Jock's parting message stated his wrong belief that tech stocks had bottomed after September 11, 2001, we did have discussions where he expressed his fear that eventually semiconductor stocks (and other companies such as computer makers) would be called cyclicals just like automobile companies are called and they would receive the same valuations as Ford, GM, and others. IF you apply these valuations to semiconductor companies, then the semiconductior companies have always been priced too high at their peaks. Miss Graphs is also right because technical analysis is one way that an individual investor can judge the viability of a product. Your point about skeptical insiders is the sort of post a (in another life) lawyer like Jock would have loved. When your country has been taken over for almost two centuries, you are raised in a very skeptical culture about outsiders, so I am a natural cycnic. But the stories Jock told me about high level corporate client types in New York still surprised me. One of the lessons, I learned this year is that trading is one way to preserve capital, and that being skeptical of the people who promote the economy, the stock, the sector, etc is one way to survive. One lesson that Jock told me was "You'd be surprised how many "investors" in a stock were traders of a stock and became "investors" when the trade went against them, and they got stubborn and refused to take their losses." And since I began trading TXN from a start of 28, I have really learned how true that is. I have also learned that picking the bottom of a market (using the VIX as an idicator) does not make one a hero, since it is just another trading day. So unlike my stubborn husband who would rather fight than learn, I would prefer to be more of a student than a combatant.