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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (57795)	11/19/2002 2:46:32 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hey, Steve! Glad to see your reply. I figured with you being in the wilds of the Philippines, I might not hear from you. (How is the "Roast Monkey" holding out? :^)) government attempts at slum clearance in our cities? I graduated from Cass Technical High School in Downtown Detroit in 1951. Lived in a Apartment building 4 blocks from it. I was a 16 year old white kid walking Cass Ave at night, with no problem. I detest Rap, but I am going to see "Eight Mile" later this week just to see what 35 years of Liberalism has done to the area. So I do hope that Iraq turns out like McArthur's Japan rather than Johnson's "Great Society." it's going to turn out to be sitting on top of waist deep muck..... the exposed crotch of the war on terror, a dangerous point of vulnerability. Gee, Steve, other than that, do you think we are OK? :^) I posted a breakdown on "Wahhabism" the other day, here is the URL: Message 18246289 Swartz points out that Wahhabism has been a failure within the total world of Islam. It has a very limited appeal for the average Muslim. It is difficult to tell how good a job we are doing of running down these Al Q terrorists that come out of this sect, which seems more and more to be the breeding ground for our main enemy. But we know who we have to get, and we are after them. The situation in Palestine is a different kind of Terrorist. It is really a "Hatfield/McCoy" situation, with over 50 years of local, intense hatred built up on both sides. It is as much a local feud and a religious war, comparable to Belfast. The Arabs in Palestine are too busy trying to kill Jews to spend much time on us. So I don't think the problem is as big as you think it is. TWT. In any case, I think my analysis is what Bush, et al, have planned is correct, whither you or I like it or not.

To: Dayuhan who wrote (57795)	11/19/2002 7:22:55 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Steven: We need to fight the ideology, and you don't kill ideas with bullets. You kill them with better ideas. You have better ideas. How do you deliver them? Remembering, that every idea, no matter how abstract has an emotional aspect and a bunch of connections. The US lately has not been good at symbolic acts. Especially in the middle east. In the past, elsewhere it has been very good at them. During WW2 for instance. To be successful a symbolic act must have substance. Lend lease, those aid packages US dropped, Marshall Plan. Little things, big things.The publicity surrounding the death camps and the Neuremburg trials. Truth content is very important. The value of your symbolic act can be destroyed. The Russians were quite popular in Afghanistan when they provided sgricultural aid - they helped farmers improve their land and productivity and it definitley won hearts and minds. All the gains were lost when the Russians supported the coup when there was resistance to the government's marxist program. I'm tired you can fill in the blanks. Most prople in the ME outside Saudi Arabia, and possibly there too, know the west particularly the US, has democracy and it delivers freedom and prosperity. Even most of the folk who say bad things about the US know this. What is the connection between that and the advantages for some particular muslim arab in striving for democracy? What is there that can make him/her thirst for democracy so bad they can taste it? Some do already and they scream hatred for the US. It's pretty obvious why - the US has freedom and prosperity and supports the wretched regimes keeping it away from Mustapha and Fatima. Despite all their noise, the islamists are not popular, they are felt as dangerous and despotic but they do have money and provide services - health, education. But they aren't the first choice if there is one more congenial. What defines congenial in such an atmosphere? Big things, little things. I used to think providing some competition for the islamists was a place to start but that's too constricting a way to think. So do proper 'market research'. What do ME folk need and want? Freedom and prosperity and in some cases, peace. They also need and want health care and education. They also want their curiosity about the west, and particularly the US, sated. They don't need and want McDs and Alanis Morisette except insofar as they are talismans of modernity, democracy, prosperity, etc. But to get back to symbolic acts. They must grow out of what we believe most strongly. At bottom what westerners have in the way of most common beliefs are remarkably few and remarkably abstract. We believe in the efficacy of democracy and reason. That is what we are accused of, and it's true. Many of us are religious but nonetheless we believe in the d&r. We dispensed with rulers and if we want an answer to something we turn usually to science and logic. Democracy is far harder to do than science and logic. So what would be a big symbolic act? Really big. We've hit a crisis in our relation with the ME. There is a lot of magical thinking in the ME about the US - by this I mean there are exagerated ideas about what the US can do for good or bad. But for good or bad the big symbolic act is to deliver democracy. It doesn't have to be perfect. It just has to work, somehow. After all, it's competing with failed regimes and so it's very likely to win. So what actually is congenial, in ME terms? Who would be easiest to get alongside with such a thing? Where might it take? What is the evidence? What is already pseudo modern in structure? Have there been some test runs? How did they turn out? What countries might run direct interference? What countries might run indirect interference? Support terrorists. It points at Iraq, you know. What kind of commitment would this take? And for how long? Max? Min? No one could know for sure but informed guesses are better than nothing. Upside, downside for the US itself. interesting articlle in the Atlantic - 51st State, or something like that. Have to stop. I wrote following two posts to Brumar and Nadine. They're defective but I suspect going in the right direction. Message 18227090 Message 18227216