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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (25558)	11/19/2002 12:20:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

I guess you are no student of economic history the parallels to 1970 decade come with a 180-degree twist you bite on the opposite oily end, and seem to miss the big picture 1969 London Gold Pool fights tooth & nail to defend a gold price of $32/oz, putting the Sterling currency at risk the sterling loses the battle gold rises 25-fold, settling recently at lows of 10-fold the 1960 decade saw a remarkable bull stock market, taking paper-based assets to extreme heights, and commodities to lows Arabs responded with quadrupling oil prices the 1960 decade saw a costly and nasty unpopular foreign war VietNam had no winner (just like the current war) the early 1970's saw a deep recession unfold, with multiple causes we actually had a Triple Dip, three recessions e.g. VietNam War $1000B cost, OPEC 4x oil price, Watergate now in the late 1990 decade..... 2000 sees climax in Federal Reserve defense of gold, but at $320 line in the sand (10x higher) 1990 decade saw a climax in a remarkable bull stock market the Greatest Financial Mania in the history of mankind we have just begun a costly war against terrorism, or is it against Islamics? it extends this time to American soil now all security measures are to add cost, as are ineffective new burokracies the 2000-02 period is seeing a stubborn recession unfold we denied the first one in 2001, but now admit it occurred we wont be able to deny the second one it will have three central components 1. USdollar decline 2. housing decline 3. automobile decline just sparring with you, MightyMo there is 95% of the picture remaining, besides the pithy point you make about crude oil but what I find truly significant about the parallel to 1970 is how we found ourselves moving into the STAGFLATION scenario from opposite corners in 1970's it was from sharp rise in supply costs, coupled with absorption of heavy federal debts, resulting in rising interest rates we got a nasty recession from the imbalances in 2000's it was from sharp rise in mfg capacity and capital equipment, falling prices, and falling interest rates we got a nasty recession from the imbalances DONT MATTER HOW STAGFLATION ARRIVES THE RESULT WILL BE SAME 10X RISE IN GOLD PRICE ESCALATING VOLATILITY IN CURRENCY MARKETS CONTINUED ECONOMIC FLATLINING do you have kangaroos or walloughbies in your back yard? / jim