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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (25569)	11/19/2002 6:50:04 PM
From: calgal	Respond to of 74559

Tech stocks charge back but may not be rally's stars By Adam Shell, USA TODAY URL:http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2002-11-18-winners_x.htm NEW YORK — In the late 1990s, tech stocks ruled. Now, they're topping the performance charts again. But not everyone is convinced the big winners of yesteryear are going to be top dogs in the next bull run. 1973 bear staggered big stocks The largest stocks going into the 1973-74 bear market suffered big losses and most hadn't recovered to pre-bear levels five years after the bear ended. Value in billions: Stock Dec. 1972 Change two years later Dec. 1979 IBM $47 -48% $38 AT&T $29 -14% $37 Eastman Kodak $24 -58% $8 General Motors $23 -62% $15 Exxon $20 -26% $24 Sears $18 -58% $6 General Electric $13 -54% $12 Xerox $12 -65% $5 Texaco $10 -44% $8 3M $10 -46% $6 Source: Straszheim Global Advisors The tech-rich Nasdaq has rallied 25% since sinking to a six-year low Oct. 9, a monstrous move that has rekindled some investors' hopes that tech will regain its luster and deliver market-beating returns. If the aftermath of the 1973-74 bear market is any guide, though, past highfliers are unlikely to duplicate their prior dominance, because burned investors are likely to fall in love with new stocks they deem more trustworthy when good times return. "Investors' tastes change," says Donald Straszheim, president of Straszheim Global Advisors. "The new winners will likely be different companies." That's what happened after the 1973-74 bear market. Only four of the 20 largest companies — all former bull-market darlings — had regained their prior peaks five years after the bear ended. Noting that 10 of the 20 biggest stocks at the March 2000 market peak were tech stocks, many of which were young and untested, Straszheim expects the same type of subpar showing from many former leaders in coming years. "After a big bubble pops, investors are less likely to embrace or get sucked into a new bubble," says Sam Stovall, chief strategist at Standard & Poor's. More challenging, perhaps, is that unlike the tech mania, no single sector has the pizazz or cult following that guarantees it will be a big winner going forward. "I don't think there is a clear-cut king" ready to be anointed, says Stuart Freeman, chief equity strategist at A.G. Edwards. So where will the new leadership come from? Some picks from the pros include: Discount retailers. The Wal-Marts of the world could continue their dominance for years to come, Stovall says. Off-price sales will pick up, not fall, when the economy perks up, he says. Straszheim agrees: "Twenty years ago, Wal-Mart sold to people in the bottom half of the income distribution. Now they sell to everyone. They are taking market share." Boring industrial stocks. Stovall is betting on companies that make fertilizer, steel, industrial gases and corrugated boxes. "They're really dull industries," he says. "But they are the kind of stocks that tend to do well when the economy improves." Energy stocks may also be winners, he says. And tech? Giants that dominate their niches, such as Intel and Microsoft, should continue to fare well, but upstarts may outmuscle lesser techs. "The rally since Oct. 9 has encouraged many investors," Straszheim says. "But waiting for a lot of these tech highfliers to regain their $100 prices may be a long wait."

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (25569)	11/19/2002 10:39:59 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<extended credit has been confused with wealth>> Not only that is to be confused with the apparent wealth. Subsidization from imports from countries whose currencies were severely devaluated. Asia and LATAM. Every time a currency is devaluated elsewhere, countries have a source of cheaper imports.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (25569)	11/20/2002 4:25:29 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<gold is real money, and the shit in your wallet is not> That's odd, because all my life, I've used the stuff in my wallet [and lately the pixels on my screen] as the real thing. The only gold I owned I lost at the bottom of a lake in Maine. I went and looked at gold to see if I could use it as money, but it was like the stuff which fell to the bottom of the lake. Imagine buying a house. I'd have to have 1000 x 1 ounce coins = 30 kg. That's quite a bit to hump around the place. Somebody might even be tempted to steal it from me. The government for example! Not to mention Robin Hood. The new sector leader is It, before which all will kneel and pay homage. They are doing so in increasing numbers. QUALCOMM is the ringmaster, collecting the entry fee. Mqurice