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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (13829)	11/20/2002 2:19:30 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

OR, Perhaps sanity will return. Until then, enjoy the holidays. TP

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (13829)	11/20/2002 2:30:43 PM
From: quote 007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

i hate to say it-because i am so pissed at myself--but its really not that difficult--DO NOT AND I REPEAT__DO NOT try to guess tops and bottoms--go with the trend--and the freaking trend has been up since about the beginning of oct--yet here we all are trying to guess the top--is it oversold--YES--but it can stay oversold for a long time--as we all should have learned

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (13829)	11/20/2002 2:31:19 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

i have to say that bearish sentiment is painful to watch....(bad for bulls) and yet i see little bullish gloating... my guess is they have little to gloat about since they are still most likely underwater as the bubble deflates... i see nothing wrong as an investment strategy to remain predominantly on the sidelines until one feels confident of the trend being supported by underlying fundamentals. pe's do not usually come into reasonable valuation by growing "e"s.....a discounted "p" is generally the remedy. at least during the bubble phase the economic growth was strong (though one could argue the "fuel" for that growth) the gains were a combination of chasing performance, momentum and an expanding economy. therefore a valid argument could be made for the continued mark up of stocks. i think we are in a phase of money purely chasing performance...(the easy short money has been made) jobs and EOY bonuses are on the line...of course that has always been the case....but i believe now it is quite naked... no real rationalization is given for marking up prices as the earnings squeeze continues...i suppose once the "efficiencies" of the forces of labor reduction takes full effect, we may see earnings of a higher quality....but without top line growth, i don't see that as anything more than a blip on the screen as the imbalances of capacity v. demand continue.